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Naturaleza y Politica: El Gobierno y el Fenomeno del Nino en el Peru 1997-1998 (Nature and Politics: The Government and the El Nino Phenomenom in Peru 1997-1998), Antonio Zapata Velasco and Juan Carlos Sueiro, Instituto de Estudios Peruanos, Accion Solidaria para el Desarrollo, Published in July 1999 (in Spanish).

The 1997-1998 El Nino was forecast with sufficient anticipation to allow Peruvian authorities to organize a planned national response. Zapata and Sueiro briefly recapitulate the events leading up to the confirmation of a strong El Nino to illustrate how the information filtered through the government institutional structure. The reader is presented with an insightful description of the institutions involved and how socio-political structures and Peruvian idiosyncrasies shaped the official response. The authors offer a critical analysis of the government's measures in the three strategic sectors of infrastructure, agriculture and fishing, in terms of institutional structure and coordination, and suggested lessons for the future. President Fujimori's personal intervention influenced the institutional response to El Nino. His government reacted quickly and managed to conceive, approve and partially execute an Action Plan. The Ministry of the Presidency, under the direct control of Fujimori, centralized a major percentage of the budget and controlled all major decisions. Regional authorities, civil society and scientific institutions played a relatively insignificant role. The authors provide excellent insight into the inherent inefficiencies of the Peruvian political structure. In their viewpoint, highly centralized political power impedes an effective collective response to El Nino events.

The absence of effective institutional coordination within the Executive Branch limited the effectiveness of the Action Plan. Different institutions fought over conflicting interests and overlapping functions. The structure of the government in general, and the Executive Branch in particular, dictates that planning be centralized but that execution be scattered. However, regional authorities lacked the experience of coordinating with the Executive Branch, while the agencies responsible for mobilizing resources lacked trained personnel or were unable to deliver assistance. Moreover, generalized corruption removed funds from their targets and slowed down progress. The authors also describe the lack of coordination between the political structures and the scientific world and the scarce relevance of scientific bodies to the political arena.

Despite the adoption of measures by the Peruvian authorities, the estimated economic losses were higher than those caused by the unanticipated 1983 El Nino. Zapata and Sueiro argue that El Nino is still regarded as an abnormal phenomenon rather than as part of a recurrent pattern. They suggest that the approach be altered to include acknowledgement of the cyclical nature of El Nino in everyday choices regarding urban planning, construction, infrastructure, economic sector preparedness and the elaboration of prevention plans.

-- Daniel Camara

Daniel Camara is a graduate student at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, concentrating in Environmental Policy Studies. He is trained as a general liability lawyer and got his Doctor of Jurisprudence degree (a law degree) at Universidad Autonoma de Madrid.