Category: Resilient Infrastructure, Road

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Climate Adaptation, South Asia Integrated Water Resources Management Policy and Planning Regional Resilient Infrastructure, Road

The Impact of Climate Change on Rain and Rising Temperatures in Koshi River Basin

A double suspension bridge over the Dudh Koshi (a tributary of the Koshi river) on the way to Namche Bazar, Nepal (Photo by Robin Lardon/Shutterstock.com).

It is unequivocal that changes in precipitation and temperature patterns are expected due to climate-driven changes, which in turn affect the hydrological regimes of associated river basins. 

As reported in IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report Working Group I, global surface temperature was nearly 1 degree Celcius higher during 2001-2020 when compared to 1850-1900 and global average precipitation on land has increased significantly since 1950.

These findings are a cause for concern for Nepal – a country that is mostly-mountainous which extends from the Earth’s highest peak down to the Terai region. But how does climate change impact this landlocked nation’s water resources?

The development and management of water resources projects should focus on climate-resilient infrastructure and nature-based solutions.

Putting things in the national context, studies show that Nepal’s maximum temperatures have increased from 0.06 to 0.12 degrees Celcius in the mountainous areas and 0.03 degrees Celcius per year in the southern plains in the last quarter of the 20th Century. 

Likewise, Nepal’s Ministry of Forest and Environment projects mean temperature rise by 0.9-1.1 degrees Celcius between 2016-2035 and 1.3- 1.8 degrees Celcius by 2036-3065 when compared to 1981-2010. 

Nepal is expected to get warmer and dryer as its number of rainy days are expected to decrease, but the precipitation intensity of these rainy days are expected to increase in the future. 

It will rain less frequent but more intense and this will result in a likely increase in water-related hazards such as floods.

A living example of these climate trends can be witnessed in the Koshi River Basin – one of the largest tributaries of the Ganga River and the largest river basin in Nepal. 

Studies report both rising temperatures and precipitation which will most likely follow an increasing trajectory in the basin.

The 2020 International Journal of Climatology published one of my co-authored studies projecting an increase in both the minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, which means that both winter and monsoon seasons will be warmer.

Specifically, the northern part of the basin (originating in the Northern Himalayan region) is particularly more sensitive to climate change given its snowy and glacier character, where absolute temperatures are expected to rise by 1.2 degrees in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 1.6 degrees Celsius for RCP8.5 by 2030.

The Upper Koshi River Basin and the major tributaries (Figure by Mishra et al., 2019).

On the other hand, monsoon precipitation is expected to increase for all RCP scenarios; post-monsoon precipitation is also expected to increase in the future, but winter precipitation is projected to decrease. 

The pre-monsoon precipitation is also expected to decrease in the coming decades. Based on the ensemble mean of average annual precipitation, Lower Himalaya and High Himalaya regions are sensitive to climate change considering precipitation. 

Higher absolute increases in precipitation are expected in the Lower Himalaya region during 2016-2045 (231 mm for climate change scenario RCP4.5 and 270 mm for RCP8.5) and in the High Himalaya region during 2036-2065 (291 mm for RCP4.5 and 419 mm for RCP8.5) and 2071-2100 (391 mm for RCP4.5 and 922 mm for RCP8.5) compared to the base period (1981-2010).

In contrast, Lower Himalaya and High Himalaya regions are sensitive to changes in precipitation in the coming decades. 

The spatial and temporal variation in temperature and precipitation will have a direct impact on water resource availability in the rivers and crop irrigation requirements in the region. 

In another one of my co-authored studies published in the 2020 International Journal of Water Resources Development, we projected the changes in river water availability in the Koshi River based on the above-mentioned changes in temperature and precipitation for short-term, mid-century, and end-ofcentury periods considering RCPs 4.5 and 8.5.

Within this context, prevailing design considerations for water-related infrastructures such as hydropower dams, bridges, canals, etc., should be reviewed considering climate change impacts on the hydrological regimes of the river systems resulting from changes in precipitation and temperature. 

It is also suggested that the development and management of water resources projects should focus on climate-resilient infrastructure and nature-based solutions. 

The writer is Joint Secretary (Technical) at Department of Water Resources and Irrigation, Nepal and Project Director of Sikta Irrigation Project. 

He can be reached at: santoshkaini@yahoo.com 

Categories
Climate-smart Agriculture Integrated Water Resources Management Policy and Planning Resilient Infrastructure, Road

Tracking Delta Investment in Bangladesh: The First Step Through the Eighth Five Year Plan

The Government of Bangladesh published the Eighth Five Year Plan (8FYP) in December 2020 and formulated strategic directions for the period running from 2021-2025. 

The 8FYP provides essential guidance on initiating the implementation of the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (BDP 2100), from 2021 onwards. 

The vision of the government, towards building a climate-resilient delta, is well-reflected in this 8FYP. 

The present article reflects how the 8FYP addresses investment in the Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) sector, and makes an attempt to track delta development progress.

Climate change is a serious threat to the investment plan and sustainability of the delta.

Delta management in Bangladesh is water-centric; this is why almost all sectors in the country are somehow linked with the water sector in the context of IWRM. 

The 8FYP allocates an investment of US$ 21.7 billion in 2021 for 47 new projects. The line ministries or sectors assigned for implementation of these projects are: the Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR), Local Government Division (LGD), Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority, Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock, Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief, and Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC). 

More than 50 percent of the total investment plan of the 8FYP is allocated to MoWR, as it is the lead ministry to deal with water resources.

Agriculture, which includes subsectors of fisheries and livestock, is the governing sector in IWRM in Bangladesh. 

This sector accounts for more than 87 percent of total freshwater withdrawal in the country according to the World Bank. 

MoWR provides essential implementation support to this sector. In the 8FYP, the Annual Development Plan (ADP) allocation for MoWR varies within a range of 65-79 percent of total investment in each fiscal year. Thus, the role and responsibilities of MoWR in resource development for the agriculture sector as well as in delta development is substantially significant. 

Climate change, on the other hand, is a serious threat to the investment plan and sustainability of the delta here. 

According to Germanwatch, Bangladesh ranks 13th and 7th in the Climate Risk Index (CRI) in 2000 and 2019 respectively. 

It is evident from the CRIs that Bangladesh has been one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the last two decades, and will remain so in future. As is the case in other national plans, the investments planned and made in the 8FYP will take a considerable toll on climate change.

Considering the investment plans outlined in the 8FYP, inputs to the agriculture sector, and the adverse impact of climate change, there is likely to be a substantial challenge to keep the current rate of development growth and meet the goals of the BDP 2100. 

To equip the government with adequate capacities for investment tracking and performance evaluation, the 6FYP first introduced the concept of Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation (RBM&E) and suggested its implementation across the ministries and different sectors.

The traditional system of monitoring physical and financial progresses of projects will no longer support the government to measure the effectiveness of any plan or implementation effort. 

The 8FYP provides a strong commitment to introducing and implementing the RBM&E system across different sectors, and for all programs and sub-programs which will be implemented under the BDP 2100. 

The 8FYP proposes a list of 104 indicators which are distributed among 15 top-priority areas at national and sectoral levels.

Development goals of these indicators are aligned with the SDGs and the national Perspective Plan 2021-2041 (PP 2041) in addition to the BDP 2100.

Guava farmers trading at a floating guava market in Bhimruli, Jhalokhati, Bangladesh (Photo by: Insight-Photography/Shutterstock.com).

The suggested institutional setup of the BDP 2100 is also addressed in the 8FYP with essential requirements for capacity-building. 

As the General Economic Division (GED) under the Bangladesh Planning Commission (BPC) is the responsible agency for the M&E of mid- and long-term plans like the BDP 2100, the institutional setup Delta Wing has been placed at GED, and includes other appropriate stakeholders. 

According to the 8FYP, the capacity-building actions for Delta Wing include, but are not limited to the following:

● Establish a Delta Fund at GED to support financing for the delta programs

● Improve current O&M practices for the ministries involved in implementation of the delta plan programs

● Strengthen implementation capacities of the line agencies such as BWDB, WARPO and MoWR 

● Establish a decentralized water management system by connecting and integrating local water management bodies

● Establish a solid foundation for the delta knowledge bank

● Develop an RBM&E system for monitoring and performance evaluation

The Delta Knowledge Bank and the M&E system are integral to the accomplishment of the specific goals of BDP 2100. 

The 8FYP recommends a multi-stakeholder consultative approach for the design of a delta plan level M&E system, with technical inputs from different knowledge partners in the country in the area of IWRM. 

Additionally, the plan sets a target for preparing a draft M&E proposal by the end of the first 18 months of the 8FYP, implementing the M&E system within the next 30 months, and preparing the first M&E report for approval by the government by the beginning of the 5th year of the plan.

The Climate Adaptation and Resilience for South Asia (CARE for South Asia) project plans to contribute to the development of the intended M&E system for the BDP 2100 by providing essential technical assistance to the GED and other nominated stakeholders, and by following the targets set forth in the 8FYP. 

It is expected that with the delta level M&E in place, the 8FYP will have a solid foundation for performance monitoring and evaluation to support maximum utilization of the investments made, and be able to bring about a transformational change in the delta management capacity of the government.

NB: All figures mentioned in this article, except otherwise explicitly referenced, are taken from the 8FYP document.

The writer is Water Resources Management Specialist in Bangladesh at ADPC and can be reached at: adil.foisal@adpc.net

Categories
Innovation Regional Resilient Infrastructure, Road

Transport in Bangladesh: Building Better Roads

Arlo Magicman/Shutterstock.com

Bangladesh has undergone significant economic growth in the last couple of years. Rural infrastructure development has played a major role in ensuring economic mobility and development.

Rural roads are the lifelines that help rural people get connected and move their merchandise and agricultural products all throughout the country.

Road infrastructure is balancing the growth of the national economy and rural economic development.

Unplanned road infrastructure can cause either flooding or erosion, ultimately leading to waterlogging and sedimentation. Also, non- resilient infrastructure is more likely to be washed away by floods and other climate-induced hazards. 

This means that ensuring climate resilience in this sector is imperative to allow other sectors to rebound after disasters and extreme climate-related events. 

However, the existing road design standards in the country lack climate resilience, especially in areas prone to flooding and storm surges that may cause erosion and damage to roads.

Cyclone/storms are the leading disaster types in Bangladesh, claiming 60% of total death counts around the world, and flooding is the second most damaging disaster, totaling almost 75% of natural hazard-related disasters affecting Bangladesh.

Currently, only 36% of 3.5 million kilometres of roads in the country are paved. Rural roads are under the jurisdiction of the Local Government Engineering Department (LGED), which is under the direct authority of the Ministry of Local Government, Rural Development and Cooperatives.

The need to develop an adaptation and resilience approach for transport infrastructure projects in every phase, especially for rural roads and rail lines, is well-recognized. 

Different types of climate change impacts will require different types of adaptation measures. The adaptation options for existing infrastructure, including identifying vulnerable locations using vulnerability assessment results, are recognized by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

For example, extreme precipitation causes flash floods or riverine floods. Some of the critical recommendations for controlling the potential effects of these floods are: establishing flood modeling studies supplemented by improved design; improving construction standards using climate-resilient materials; and maintaining surface drainage. 

Capacity-building activities like the improvisation of policies and regulations with disaster preparedness training are also defined as resilience-building measures.

The Government of Bangladesh emphasizes the development and maintenance of rural roads with climate resilient designs by 2025. Bangladesh aspires to achieve 100% readiness for disasters by year 2041, using the strategic guidelines provided by Bangladesh’s 8th Five-Year Plan (July 2020-June 2025).

Published in 2020, this is the first plan supporting the Perspective Plan 2021-2041 (PP2041) and providing strategic guidelines to develop climate-, disaster- and impact-resilient rural transportation networks. 

In simple terms, it emphasizes the prioritization of roads to accelerate economic growth.

This Five-Year Plan addresses strategies and specific objectives and targets for rural road development, operation, maintenance, and strategic priorities for rural road networks in Bangladesh. 

A total of 16,000 km of two-lane rural roads are targeted to be constructed with resilient climate designs by 2025, as per the 8th Five-Year Plan. In addition, Bangladesh’s PP-2041 supports the development of climate-resilient infrastructure towards achieving 100% readiness for disasters by the year 2041.

The Government of Bangladesh’s commitment to eradicate poverty and strengthen rural roads will not only enhance connectivity and accessibility of remote areas in Bangladesh, but also create an opportunity for people living in rural Bangladesh to have dependable and climate resilient infrastructure during disasters and post-disaster periods. 

The future of Bangladesh’s economy depends on building better roads to create climate resilient transport sectors all over the country.

 

The writer is Resilient Transport Specialist at ADPC.

Email: naureen.laila@adpc.net

Categories
Resilient Infrastructure, Road

Transport Resilience in the face of climate change

Photo by Jahangir Alam Onuchcha/Shutterstock.com

In South Asia, road transport is key to enabling many aspects of economic life such as trade, public services delivery, governance, tourism, and other economic activities. Governments invest significantly in road infrastructure to provide connectivity to all economic zones primarily to reduce poverty and promote rural development. In brief, road infrastructure is a crucial catalyst of economic activity.

This requires more concerted efforts towards improving the current road infrastructure, especially in the geologically fragile mountain terrain of Nepal and in the flat terrain of Bangladesh, which is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts such as floods, storm surges and landslides caused by heavy rain and cyclones.

According   to   the    United    Nations    Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP), resilient transport plays a critical role in the development of a country. While the transport sector can be affected by extreme climatic events, it  is also one of the major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. Integrating economic, social and environmental aspects in transport policies, design, construction and maintenance can directly contribute to the achievements of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Temperature, wind speed and rainfall are major parameters that are significantly impacted by climate change. Decision-makers, designers and implementers are expected to enhance their knowledge about climate change impact on road infrastructure. This includes the understanding of the probability of occurrence and the planning, financing, design, construction, and maintenance of these roads in the future.

The CARE for South Asia project seeks to enable the relevant authorities to include climate change-related parameters while planning new and existing rural road infrastructure policies. The outcome related to the transport sector is to create an enabling environment for climate resilience policies and investments across South Asia with a particular focus on Bangladesh and Nepal.

The project will achieve these goals by enhancing regional cooperation and knowledge exchange through the mainstreaming of resilience and adaptation in national policies, plans, and investments. An improved access to and use of regional climate information, analytics, climate-sensitive policies, plans, and guidelines will help strengthen the transport sector’s resilience to climate change in Bangladesh and Nepal.

ADPC will work with the Local Government Engineering Department (LGED), Bangladesh and other relevant agencies to develop and operationalize climate resilience strategies that are informed by the results of hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment for road design.

The major challenge for the resilient road sector in Bangladesh is developing stakeholders’  capacity to absorb scientific information on climate change and improve construction standards. Moreover, stakeholders have expressed the need to improve existing design and construction standards for rural and strategic roads in the country. ADPC will provide technical support to upgrade these standards and build relevant government agencies’ capacities for implementing climate-risk management solutions.

In Nepal, ADPC will work with the Department of Roads (DOR) and other relevant agencies in developing evidence-based resilient policies, strategies and action/investment plans, informed by the results of hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment. In particular, this will be achieved by integrating guidelines for resilient road networks, slope stabilization and protection designs in existing policies.

Furthermore, the project will help upgrade Nepal Roads Standards 2070 and Nepal Rural Roads Standards 2071 to make them more climate-resilient. In addition, the project will build the technical capacities of government officials on climate-resilience adaptive policy-making, design and solutions in the transport sector.

The writer is Resilient Infrastructure Specialist at ADPC.

Email: nurul.alam@adpc.net