Category: Policy and Planning

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Climate Adaptation, South Asia Integrated Water Resources Management Policy and Planning Regional Resilient Infrastructure, Road

The Impact of Climate Change on Rain and Rising Temperatures in Koshi River Basin

A double suspension bridge over the Dudh Koshi (a tributary of the Koshi river) on the way to Namche Bazar, Nepal (Photo by Robin Lardon/Shutterstock.com).

It is unequivocal that changes in precipitation and temperature patterns are expected due to climate-driven changes, which in turn affect the hydrological regimes of associated river basins. 

As reported in IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report Working Group I, global surface temperature was nearly 1 degree Celcius higher during 2001-2020 when compared to 1850-1900 and global average precipitation on land has increased significantly since 1950.

These findings are a cause for concern for Nepal – a country that is mostly-mountainous which extends from the Earth’s highest peak down to the Terai region. But how does climate change impact this landlocked nation’s water resources?

The development and management of water resources projects should focus on climate-resilient infrastructure and nature-based solutions.

Putting things in the national context, studies show that Nepal’s maximum temperatures have increased from 0.06 to 0.12 degrees Celcius in the mountainous areas and 0.03 degrees Celcius per year in the southern plains in the last quarter of the 20th Century. 

Likewise, Nepal’s Ministry of Forest and Environment projects mean temperature rise by 0.9-1.1 degrees Celcius between 2016-2035 and 1.3- 1.8 degrees Celcius by 2036-3065 when compared to 1981-2010. 

Nepal is expected to get warmer and dryer as its number of rainy days are expected to decrease, but the precipitation intensity of these rainy days are expected to increase in the future. 

It will rain less frequent but more intense and this will result in a likely increase in water-related hazards such as floods.

A living example of these climate trends can be witnessed in the Koshi River Basin – one of the largest tributaries of the Ganga River and the largest river basin in Nepal. 

Studies report both rising temperatures and precipitation which will most likely follow an increasing trajectory in the basin.

The 2020 International Journal of Climatology published one of my co-authored studies projecting an increase in both the minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, which means that both winter and monsoon seasons will be warmer.

Specifically, the northern part of the basin (originating in the Northern Himalayan region) is particularly more sensitive to climate change given its snowy and glacier character, where absolute temperatures are expected to rise by 1.2 degrees in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 1.6 degrees Celsius for RCP8.5 by 2030.

The Upper Koshi River Basin and the major tributaries (Figure by Mishra et al., 2019).

On the other hand, monsoon precipitation is expected to increase for all RCP scenarios; post-monsoon precipitation is also expected to increase in the future, but winter precipitation is projected to decrease. 

The pre-monsoon precipitation is also expected to decrease in the coming decades. Based on the ensemble mean of average annual precipitation, Lower Himalaya and High Himalaya regions are sensitive to climate change considering precipitation. 

Higher absolute increases in precipitation are expected in the Lower Himalaya region during 2016-2045 (231 mm for climate change scenario RCP4.5 and 270 mm for RCP8.5) and in the High Himalaya region during 2036-2065 (291 mm for RCP4.5 and 419 mm for RCP8.5) and 2071-2100 (391 mm for RCP4.5 and 922 mm for RCP8.5) compared to the base period (1981-2010).

In contrast, Lower Himalaya and High Himalaya regions are sensitive to changes in precipitation in the coming decades. 

The spatial and temporal variation in temperature and precipitation will have a direct impact on water resource availability in the rivers and crop irrigation requirements in the region. 

In another one of my co-authored studies published in the 2020 International Journal of Water Resources Development, we projected the changes in river water availability in the Koshi River based on the above-mentioned changes in temperature and precipitation for short-term, mid-century, and end-ofcentury periods considering RCPs 4.5 and 8.5.

Within this context, prevailing design considerations for water-related infrastructures such as hydropower dams, bridges, canals, etc., should be reviewed considering climate change impacts on the hydrological regimes of the river systems resulting from changes in precipitation and temperature. 

It is also suggested that the development and management of water resources projects should focus on climate-resilient infrastructure and nature-based solutions. 

The writer is Joint Secretary (Technical) at Department of Water Resources and Irrigation, Nepal and Project Director of Sikta Irrigation Project. 

He can be reached at: santoshkaini@yahoo.com 

Categories
Climate-smart Agriculture Integrated Water Resources Management Policy and Planning Resilient Infrastructure, Road

Tracking Delta Investment in Bangladesh: The First Step Through the Eighth Five Year Plan

The Government of Bangladesh published the Eighth Five Year Plan (8FYP) in December 2020 and formulated strategic directions for the period running from 2021-2025. 

The 8FYP provides essential guidance on initiating the implementation of the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (BDP 2100), from 2021 onwards. 

The vision of the government, towards building a climate-resilient delta, is well-reflected in this 8FYP. 

The present article reflects how the 8FYP addresses investment in the Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) sector, and makes an attempt to track delta development progress.

Climate change is a serious threat to the investment plan and sustainability of the delta.

Delta management in Bangladesh is water-centric; this is why almost all sectors in the country are somehow linked with the water sector in the context of IWRM. 

The 8FYP allocates an investment of US$ 21.7 billion in 2021 for 47 new projects. The line ministries or sectors assigned for implementation of these projects are: the Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR), Local Government Division (LGD), Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority, Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock, Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief, and Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC). 

More than 50 percent of the total investment plan of the 8FYP is allocated to MoWR, as it is the lead ministry to deal with water resources.

Agriculture, which includes subsectors of fisheries and livestock, is the governing sector in IWRM in Bangladesh. 

This sector accounts for more than 87 percent of total freshwater withdrawal in the country according to the World Bank. 

MoWR provides essential implementation support to this sector. In the 8FYP, the Annual Development Plan (ADP) allocation for MoWR varies within a range of 65-79 percent of total investment in each fiscal year. Thus, the role and responsibilities of MoWR in resource development for the agriculture sector as well as in delta development is substantially significant. 

Climate change, on the other hand, is a serious threat to the investment plan and sustainability of the delta here. 

According to Germanwatch, Bangladesh ranks 13th and 7th in the Climate Risk Index (CRI) in 2000 and 2019 respectively. 

It is evident from the CRIs that Bangladesh has been one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the last two decades, and will remain so in future. As is the case in other national plans, the investments planned and made in the 8FYP will take a considerable toll on climate change.

Considering the investment plans outlined in the 8FYP, inputs to the agriculture sector, and the adverse impact of climate change, there is likely to be a substantial challenge to keep the current rate of development growth and meet the goals of the BDP 2100. 

To equip the government with adequate capacities for investment tracking and performance evaluation, the 6FYP first introduced the concept of Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation (RBM&E) and suggested its implementation across the ministries and different sectors.

The traditional system of monitoring physical and financial progresses of projects will no longer support the government to measure the effectiveness of any plan or implementation effort. 

The 8FYP provides a strong commitment to introducing and implementing the RBM&E system across different sectors, and for all programs and sub-programs which will be implemented under the BDP 2100. 

The 8FYP proposes a list of 104 indicators which are distributed among 15 top-priority areas at national and sectoral levels.

Development goals of these indicators are aligned with the SDGs and the national Perspective Plan 2021-2041 (PP 2041) in addition to the BDP 2100.

Guava farmers trading at a floating guava market in Bhimruli, Jhalokhati, Bangladesh (Photo by: Insight-Photography/Shutterstock.com).

The suggested institutional setup of the BDP 2100 is also addressed in the 8FYP with essential requirements for capacity-building. 

As the General Economic Division (GED) under the Bangladesh Planning Commission (BPC) is the responsible agency for the M&E of mid- and long-term plans like the BDP 2100, the institutional setup Delta Wing has been placed at GED, and includes other appropriate stakeholders. 

According to the 8FYP, the capacity-building actions for Delta Wing include, but are not limited to the following:

● Establish a Delta Fund at GED to support financing for the delta programs

● Improve current O&M practices for the ministries involved in implementation of the delta plan programs

● Strengthen implementation capacities of the line agencies such as BWDB, WARPO and MoWR 

● Establish a decentralized water management system by connecting and integrating local water management bodies

● Establish a solid foundation for the delta knowledge bank

● Develop an RBM&E system for monitoring and performance evaluation

The Delta Knowledge Bank and the M&E system are integral to the accomplishment of the specific goals of BDP 2100. 

The 8FYP recommends a multi-stakeholder consultative approach for the design of a delta plan level M&E system, with technical inputs from different knowledge partners in the country in the area of IWRM. 

Additionally, the plan sets a target for preparing a draft M&E proposal by the end of the first 18 months of the 8FYP, implementing the M&E system within the next 30 months, and preparing the first M&E report for approval by the government by the beginning of the 5th year of the plan.

The Climate Adaptation and Resilience for South Asia (CARE for South Asia) project plans to contribute to the development of the intended M&E system for the BDP 2100 by providing essential technical assistance to the GED and other nominated stakeholders, and by following the targets set forth in the 8FYP. 

It is expected that with the delta level M&E in place, the 8FYP will have a solid foundation for performance monitoring and evaluation to support maximum utilization of the investments made, and be able to bring about a transformational change in the delta management capacity of the government.

NB: All figures mentioned in this article, except otherwise explicitly referenced, are taken from the 8FYP document.

The writer is Water Resources Management Specialist in Bangladesh at ADPC and can be reached at: adil.foisal@adpc.net

Categories
Climate Adaptation, South Asia Innovation Integrated Water Resources Management Policy and Planning Regional

Interview with Kamal Kishore

Interview with Kamal Kishore

Kamal Kishore, Member, National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), India, is also serving as the Indian Co-Chair of the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI). 

ADPC recently held an exclusive ‘Climate Talks’ discussion with this esteemed disaster risk and resilience expert on India’s efforts towards strengthening disaster and climate resilience.

https://youtu.be/A-A7mZFwKTI

Which natural hazards or climate-induced threats have the highest impacts in India?

Let me start with cyclones. We traditionally invest more in cyclone resilience for the eastern coast of India, but we’ve noticed increased cyclone activity on the western coast as well in the last 6 to 7 years. 

While we’re not yet sure that this is a long-lasting trend, it has an impact on our resources as we need to expand the same success against cyclones to both coastlines.

The same is the issue with flooding. There have been years when the overall monsoons performance in terms of All India Rainfall Index have been lower then normal, yet some parts of the country experienced extreme floods. 

We really have to focus on improving our flood risk management practices, early warning systems, flood control measures, and better land-use planning.

We also have “inter-connected mountain hazards” like glacial lake outbursts which lead to floods, landslides, avalanches, formation of lakes, and flash flooding downstream. 

We’re working towards coming up with an integrated approach for monitoring these hazards and taking steps to provide as best an early warning as we can and overall, strengthen systems at the community-level to respond to these warnings and take necessary action.

A lot of these hazards will impact our infrastructure, and India is a country which still has a large infrastructure deficit. 

This is why big investments are going into building the resilience of such projects for generations to come, and it is in this context that India has been working with 26 other countries and international organizations to create the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure to advance resilient power systems, water systems, telecommunications, railways, and freight corridors to withstand future climates.

How effective is India in promoting disaster risk reduction?

We’ve had good success in saving more lives by connecting science to society and taking a multi-sectoral approach. For example, we’ve been able to reduce mortalities from heatwaves by 90 percent, but we need to go beyond and reduce other kinds of losses as well.

We have to save lives, but also livelihoods. That requires making our infrastructure services resilient to shocks from natural hazards. We are making sure that power systems don’t go down when cyclones hit or come back on quickly. 

There were times when power outages in cyclone-affected areas went on for months, but now some cities having underground cabling and better management systems, that recovery time has reduced to just a few days.

Can you share some experiences in managing disasters and climate change during COVID-19?

It’s been a challenging time! We’ve had five cyclones during the pandemic on the eastern and western coasts. 

The National Disaster Risk Force (NDRF) had to not only protect people affected by cyclones, but also themselves from health risks. Around 100 NDRF members tested positive, but luckily, they all recovered in good time.

Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) were redrafted, protective gear was distributed and evacuation procedures were revised to minimize the risk of transmission. Once vaccines were distributed, NDRF members were prioritized. 

One key lesson is that SOPs cannot be frozen in time, they need to continually evolve to respond to new risks that become known, otherwise they will become outdated and ineffective.

Given India’s high population, what are the roles of local governments and communities?

They shouldn’t only participate; they have to lead. Communities know how to respond to an early warning in an organized fashion.

When it comes to cyclone shelters, the story to be told is that these shelters are multi-purpose and they’re managed by communities themselves.

If the Government is the only one managing it, then it is very possible that the cyclone shelter is either not available or not in a good condition. 

If it is managed in the community as part of their daily lives, they will have their own organization around it to ensure that the needs of women, children, old people, etc., are properly met during evacuation.

How is the Government ensuring access to disaster risk financing?

The Finance Commission, constituted every five years, looks at how central revenues are distributed and one of its thematic areas is disaster risk management. 

From this Commission onwards, India has predictable finance that covers the entire spectrum of disaster risk management activities—there are resources allocated to response, recovery and preparedness and capacity building on the one hand, and mitigation on the other. 

The resources we have from these dedicated windows will be able to catalyze additional financing within the development sectors themselves. 

Turning policies into action is very challenging, however, so I hope that in a few years we can measure our success not by the amount of money we spent, but rather the outcomes we have achieved in risk reduction.

 

Kamal spoke to Ms. Vidya Rana, Senior Communications Manager, ADPC.

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Gender Policy and Planning Regional

Enhancing Participation: Women and Resilience in the Face of Climate Change

Photo courtesy of Syeda Hadika Jamshaid

Syeda Hadika Jamshaid, Climate Change Specialist at the Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC), Pakistan, is also currently serving as the UNFCCC Gender Focal Person for Pakistan. 

She supports the MoCC in building climate resilient infrastructure, towards achieving Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), localizing carbon market tools for sustainable development, and mainstreaming gender into policies and programs.

What initiatives are Pakistan taking to make women and marginalized groups more resilient to climate change, which has been compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic?

Pakistan is implementing various initiatives that have tried to address gender-related issues, apart from mitigating climate change impacts. Examples include the following projects: 

We have started the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Programme (TBTPP). This programme provides livelihood opportunities for women in forestry. 

It also assists women with raising plant nurseries in rural areas. Importantly, it employs female community mobilization teams of the Forest Department; which would approach those women who are impoverished and destitute, and then educate and train them.

Another initiative is the Prime Minister’s Green Stimulus package which is targeted at COVID-idled daily wagers, including women, and largely focuses on diverting and re-configuring components of TBTTP to plant trees, raise saplings, and protect the plantations from intruders.

Clean Green Pakistan Movement (CGPM) was re-designed post-COVID to assist with the objectives of job creation, by contributing to total sanitation, solid waste management, and hygiene within identified districts of two provinces (Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa). 

This movement was redesigned to target a total of 53,250 livelihood opportunities over the span of three months. 

This would include community and, social mobilizers raising awareness around sanitation and drain cleaning, garbage collectors/scavengers, as well as certified Clean Green Champions. 

After the success of the pilot phase, the movement has been scaled up to include Azad Jammu Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan.

I would also like to mention Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) risk reduction in Northern Pakistan which aims at building resilience through Early Warning Systems (EWS), infrastructure, and disaster management policies. 

Project planning involved gender assessment: it aims to ensure enhanced participation of women. 

All the above-mentioned adaptation measures are created with the intention of building community resilience by means of enhancing the participation of women. 

Besides, with a view to narrowing gender gaps and integrating gender perspectives in all sectoral policies, plans and strategies, the National Climate Change Gender Action Plan (ccGAP) is currently being drafted by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and Pakistan in coordination with the Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC) and other relevant stakeholders.

You have been involved in the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) process, which Pakistan has recently completed. 

Would you like to share how gender issues factor into the current INDC process?

As already highlighted, to make the updated NDC gender-sensitive, a Gender working group was formulated, which was led by a woman.

This Group would identify the gender gaps in NDC sectors and develop recommendations to close these gaps. The working group participated in various meetings and developed a working paper to inform the NDC about emerging priorities and challenges. 

However, women’s participation in the rest of the working groups was low, and in some cases even nil. I also noted that the gender representatives from provincial departments should have further been allowed to improve the recommendations but given the time constraints, the best possible outcome was delivered within the given time frame. 

We are hoping to fill this gap through the on-going ccGAP consultations.

The working groups organized a series of meetings to identify and consolidate Pakistan’s efforts over the last five years and to design recommendations for the next five years. 

The groups also identified the capacity, technology, and financial needs for NDC implementation. In addition to these, a few new areas were highlighted which were never a part of Pakistan’s NDC. 

These are youth, air pollution, health, WASH (Water, Sanitation and Hygiene), Blue Carbon, Carbon Markets, etc. 

Different sector partners helped the MoCC to develop evidence-based recommendations to enhance the NDC commitments. 

All these activities have been concluded, and NDC is now in the final stages of completion.

The Ministry of Climate Change has prepared a roadmap for the 26th iteration of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 2021 (COP26); to systematically engage government agencies and other partners in the process. 

As a part of the roadmap, thematic committees have also been constituted. Could you please tell us how gender has been mainstreamed into these committees? 

What are the achievements of the working group on gender and women’s issues?

Two technical working groups were created, namely, adaptation and mitigation. 

Both groups had subgroups based on NDC sectors like waste, land use change, agriculture, industry, energy, etc. 

It was ensured that provincial focal points are also a part of the groups in addition to participation from government sector, private sector, development sector partners, academia, private think tanks and community-based organizations. 

Gender, as the crosscutting issue, had its own working group to ensure the recommendations are gender sensitive.

Pakistan will have its own pavilion at COP26, with side events, for which necessary arrangements have been made.

Could you identify gaps and challenges, with reference to gender considerations in climate resilience in Pakistan?

First and foremost is the inconsistency in the efforts that have been made so far. To sustain inclusive climate-resilient programming and operations,

We need policies which necessitate all programs to be gender-sensitive.

We have seen such approaches adopted at different levels in certain NGOs and in the commercial sector.

The development of gender indicators and markers will ensure gender-sensitive public programming.

Secondly, I would like to highlight that the biggest challenge in South Asian countries is the unavailability of sex-disaggregated data. 

Countries need to build capacities and human resources at the local level to collect and maintain this data on a regular basis, so as to understand and build evidence on the gendered impacts of climate change and to design climate informed-programs.

 

Jamshaid spoke to Bhawana Upadhay, Senior Specialist, Gender and Inclusion, ADPC.