Categories
Climate Adaptation, South Asia Integrated Water Resources Management Policy and Planning Regional Resilient Infrastructure, Road

The Impact of Climate Change on Rain and Rising Temperatures in Koshi River Basin

It is unequivocal that changes in precipitation and temperature patterns are expected due to climate-driven changes, which in turn affect the hydrological regimes of associated river basins. 

As reported in IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report Working Group I, global surface temperature was nearly 1 degree Celcius higher during 2001-2020 when compared to 1850-1900 and global average precipitation on land has increased significantly since 1950.

These findings are a cause for concern for Nepal – a country that is mostly-mountainous which extends from the Earth’s highest peak down to the Terai region. But how does climate change impact this landlocked nation’s water resources?

The development and management of water resources projects should focus on climate-resilient infrastructure and nature-based solutions.

Putting things in the national context, studies show that Nepal’s maximum temperatures have increased from 0.06 to 0.12 degrees Celcius in the mountainous areas and 0.03 degrees Celcius per year in the southern plains in the last quarter of the 20th Century. 

Likewise, Nepal’s Ministry of Forest and Environment projects mean temperature rise by 0.9-1.1 degrees Celcius between 2016-2035 and 1.3- 1.8 degrees Celcius by 2036-3065 when compared to 1981-2010. 

Nepal is expected to get warmer and dryer as its number of rainy days are expected to decrease, but the precipitation intensity of these rainy days are expected to increase in the future. 

It will rain less frequent but more intense and this will result in a likely increase in water-related hazards such as floods.

A living example of these climate trends can be witnessed in the Koshi River Basin – one of the largest tributaries of the Ganga River and the largest river basin in Nepal. 

Studies report both rising temperatures and precipitation which will most likely follow an increasing trajectory in the basin.

The 2020 International Journal of Climatology published one of my co-authored studies projecting an increase in both the minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, which means that both winter and monsoon seasons will be warmer.

Specifically, the northern part of the basin (originating in the Northern Himalayan region) is particularly more sensitive to climate change given its snowy and glacier character, where absolute temperatures are expected to rise by 1.2 degrees in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 1.6 degrees Celsius for RCP8.5 by 2030.

The Upper Koshi River Basin and the major tributaries (Figure by Mishra et al., 2019).

On the other hand, monsoon precipitation is expected to increase for all RCP scenarios; post-monsoon precipitation is also expected to increase in the future, but winter precipitation is projected to decrease. 

The pre-monsoon precipitation is also expected to decrease in the coming decades. Based on the ensemble mean of average annual precipitation, Lower Himalaya and High Himalaya regions are sensitive to climate change considering precipitation. 

Higher absolute increases in precipitation are expected in the Lower Himalaya region during 2016-2045 (231 mm for climate change scenario RCP4.5 and 270 mm for RCP8.5) and in the High Himalaya region during 2036-2065 (291 mm for RCP4.5 and 419 mm for RCP8.5) and 2071-2100 (391 mm for RCP4.5 and 922 mm for RCP8.5) compared to the base period (1981-2010).

In contrast, Lower Himalaya and High Himalaya regions are sensitive to changes in precipitation in the coming decades. 

The spatial and temporal variation in temperature and precipitation will have a direct impact on water resource availability in the rivers and crop irrigation requirements in the region. 

In another one of my co-authored studies published in the 2020 International Journal of Water Resources Development, we projected the changes in river water availability in the Koshi River based on the above-mentioned changes in temperature and precipitation for short-term, mid-century, and end-ofcentury periods considering RCPs 4.5 and 8.5.

Within this context, prevailing design considerations for water-related infrastructures such as hydropower dams, bridges, canals, etc., should be reviewed considering climate change impacts on the hydrological regimes of the river systems resulting from changes in precipitation and temperature. 

It is also suggested that the development and management of water resources projects should focus on climate-resilient infrastructure and nature-based solutions. 

The writer is Joint Secretary (Technical) at Department of Water Resources and Irrigation, Nepal and Project Director of Sikta Irrigation Project. 

He can be reached at: santoshkaini@yahoo.com 

Categories
Climate-smart Agriculture Integrated Water Resources Management Policy and Planning Resilient Infrastructure, Road

Tracking Delta Investment in Bangladesh: The First Step Through the Eighth Five Year Plan

The Government of Bangladesh published the Eighth Five Year Plan (8FYP) in December 2020 and formulated strategic directions for the period running from 2021-2025. 

The 8FYP provides essential guidance on initiating the implementation of the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (BDP 2100), from 2021 onwards. 

The vision of the government, towards building a climate-resilient delta, is well-reflected in this 8FYP. 

The present article reflects how the 8FYP addresses investment in the Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) sector, and makes an attempt to track delta development progress.

Climate change is a serious threat to the investment plan and sustainability of the delta.

Delta management in Bangladesh is water-centric; this is why almost all sectors in the country are somehow linked with the water sector in the context of IWRM. 

The 8FYP allocates an investment of US$ 21.7 billion in 2021 for 47 new projects. The line ministries or sectors assigned for implementation of these projects are: the Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR), Local Government Division (LGD), Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority, Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock, Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief, and Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC). 

More than 50 percent of the total investment plan of the 8FYP is allocated to MoWR, as it is the lead ministry to deal with water resources.

Agriculture, which includes subsectors of fisheries and livestock, is the governing sector in IWRM in Bangladesh. 

This sector accounts for more than 87 percent of total freshwater withdrawal in the country according to the World Bank. 

MoWR provides essential implementation support to this sector. In the 8FYP, the Annual Development Plan (ADP) allocation for MoWR varies within a range of 65-79 percent of total investment in each fiscal year. Thus, the role and responsibilities of MoWR in resource development for the agriculture sector as well as in delta development is substantially significant. 

Climate change, on the other hand, is a serious threat to the investment plan and sustainability of the delta here. 

According to Germanwatch, Bangladesh ranks 13th and 7th in the Climate Risk Index (CRI) in 2000 and 2019 respectively. 

It is evident from the CRIs that Bangladesh has been one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the last two decades, and will remain so in future. As is the case in other national plans, the investments planned and made in the 8FYP will take a considerable toll on climate change.

Considering the investment plans outlined in the 8FYP, inputs to the agriculture sector, and the adverse impact of climate change, there is likely to be a substantial challenge to keep the current rate of development growth and meet the goals of the BDP 2100. 

To equip the government with adequate capacities for investment tracking and performance evaluation, the 6FYP first introduced the concept of Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation (RBM&E) and suggested its implementation across the ministries and different sectors.

The traditional system of monitoring physical and financial progresses of projects will no longer support the government to measure the effectiveness of any plan or implementation effort. 

The 8FYP provides a strong commitment to introducing and implementing the RBM&E system across different sectors, and for all programs and sub-programs which will be implemented under the BDP 2100. 

The 8FYP proposes a list of 104 indicators which are distributed among 15 top-priority areas at national and sectoral levels.

Development goals of these indicators are aligned with the SDGs and the national Perspective Plan 2021-2041 (PP 2041) in addition to the BDP 2100.

Guava farmers trading at a floating guava market in Bhimruli, Jhalokhati, Bangladesh (Photo by: Insight-Photography/Shutterstock.com).

The suggested institutional setup of the BDP 2100 is also addressed in the 8FYP with essential requirements for capacity-building. 

As the General Economic Division (GED) under the Bangladesh Planning Commission (BPC) is the responsible agency for the M&E of mid- and long-term plans like the BDP 2100, the institutional setup Delta Wing has been placed at GED, and includes other appropriate stakeholders. 

According to the 8FYP, the capacity-building actions for Delta Wing include, but are not limited to the following:

● Establish a Delta Fund at GED to support financing for the delta programs

● Improve current O&M practices for the ministries involved in implementation of the delta plan programs

● Strengthen implementation capacities of the line agencies such as BWDB, WARPO and MoWR 

● Establish a decentralized water management system by connecting and integrating local water management bodies

● Establish a solid foundation for the delta knowledge bank

● Develop an RBM&E system for monitoring and performance evaluation

The Delta Knowledge Bank and the M&E system are integral to the accomplishment of the specific goals of BDP 2100. 

The 8FYP recommends a multi-stakeholder consultative approach for the design of a delta plan level M&E system, with technical inputs from different knowledge partners in the country in the area of IWRM. 

Additionally, the plan sets a target for preparing a draft M&E proposal by the end of the first 18 months of the 8FYP, implementing the M&E system within the next 30 months, and preparing the first M&E report for approval by the government by the beginning of the 5th year of the plan.

The Climate Adaptation and Resilience for South Asia (CARE for South Asia) project plans to contribute to the development of the intended M&E system for the BDP 2100 by providing essential technical assistance to the GED and other nominated stakeholders, and by following the targets set forth in the 8FYP. 

It is expected that with the delta level M&E in place, the 8FYP will have a solid foundation for performance monitoring and evaluation to support maximum utilization of the investments made, and be able to bring about a transformational change in the delta management capacity of the government.

NB: All figures mentioned in this article, except otherwise explicitly referenced, are taken from the 8FYP document.

The writer is Water Resources Management Specialist in Bangladesh at ADPC and can be reached at: adil.foisal@adpc.net

Categories
Climate Adaptation, South Asia Integrated Water Resources Management Regional

Living with the River: Going with the Flow of the Kosi

The Kosi is a transboundary river that springs from the Himalayan slopes of Tibet and flows through the Northern Himalayan region. 

The Kosi River Basin covers 74,500km2 and drains into the river Ganga through numerous channels, eventually passing through Bangladesh to the sea in the Bay of Bengal.

The basin supports the lives and livelihoods of 40 million people, more than 80 percent of whom depend on agriculture for food and employment. Now, concern is growing that climate change is disrupting the basin’s ecology and will seriously damage millions of lives.

The basin has already faced repeated disasters including landslides, floods, and glacial lake outbursts that have devastated downstream communities.

In 2020, some 9.6 million people in the Kosi River Basin, reeling from the Covid-19 pandemic, were inundated by monsoon flooding in Nepal, India, and Bangladesh.

There is a growing need for citizen-centered approaches to water governance and transboundary cooperation. 

In this article, we call for a more inclusive paradigm of water governance, guided by the needs of riparian communities and an ethos of cooperation and conservation, rather than transboundary water politics and ecologically ineffective infrastructure development.

There is a growing need for citizen-centered approaches to water governance and transboundary cooperation.

The ecology and climate of the Kosi River Basin

The Kosi Basin illustrates the interconnected effects of climate change and man-made interventions on lives and ecosystems in a transboundary basin.

Floods impact agricultural production as fields remain submerged for months. Growing population density, urbanization, and encroachment on watersheds put additional pressure on the basin’s freshwater ecosystems. 

Water disasters in the basin, triggered or amplified by poorly planned infrastructure, strike communities without regard to international borders.

In 2008, the Kosi breached the man-made embankments that had been built to control and contain it, with grave consequences for 2.64 million people in India and Nepal, taking lives and destroying livelihoods on both sides of the border.

The floods deposited sand and silt on arable lands that left them unfit for cultivation for years. In Nepal, 4,648 hectares of agricultural land were ruined.

In Bihar, India’s most flood-prone state, the 2008 floods damaged 100,000 hectares of wheat and rice farmland and the livelihoods of around 500,000 farmers.

Communities living along the basin are among the most economically disadvantaged, the most vulnerable to natural disasters, and the least able to adapt and respond to rapid ecosystem degradation.

In India, the Kosi flows through one of the poorest states, Bihar, where a majority of the rural population is dependent on agriculture. In Nepal, 40 percent of the population in the basin lives below the poverty line. 

While high-profile hydropower projects in the basin have been a development priority, they are yet to improve livelihoods or other socio-economic benefits in the basin, including electricity access.

These socio-economic inequities were echoed in a series of multi-stakeholder dialogues in the basin, organized by community-based NGOs and organizations supported by The Asia Foundation, in which the communities described the challenges they face in the Kosi River Basin.

Development issues persist across the board, from lack of a minimum wage or access to land to inadequate healthcare, sanitation, and education.

Male migration from the region has increased in the last decade. Women are particularly affected by the lack of sanitation and freshwater for domestic care work.

Riverine communities are adapting to climate change

In the 1950s, thick embankments were constructed along 150km of the Kosi River to defend against flooding. While farmers had traditionally constructed bandhs—low structures of mud and stones to control flooding and support irrigation—these were intentionally temporary, and although flooding still occurred in rural villages, the large expanses of floodplain slowed the flow of floodwaters and reduced damage to property and livelihoods. 

The floods nourished agricultural lands in the region. But beginning as early as colonial times, successive governments built permanent embankments that altered the natural drainage of the basin and cut off the river from its surrounding floodplains. 

Unlike the traditional bandhs, these embankments often stand some distance from the river, sometimes closer to villages, and completely block the natural drainage of water in the floodplain.

The rationale was to protect farms, livelihoods, and development infrastructure from flood damage, but the effect was often just the opposite. 

As the Kosi River flows through the Himalayan mountainous regions, it carries with it large amounts of silt that it deposits onto the plains of Nepal and northern India. 

When traditional irrigation channels that conducted water and silt through the floodplains were subsumed by large embankment projects, it altered this flow, causing unchecked accumulation of sand and silt.

Silt deposition near an embankment at Navbhata, Saharasa, Bihar, India, in the Kosi River Basin (Photo: CC BY 3.0 via Wikipedia)

The embankments were equipped with sluice gates that could be opened or closed to control the flow of water in the main river channel, but disrepair and poor management of the gates have allowed silt to accumulate within the embankments, raising the riverbed and causing water to flow into the villages.

There the floodwaters stagnate, depositing silt and sand that make the land inarable. Families in villages between successive embankments must evacuate to higher ground when waters rise. 

Often, they are unable to move due to socio-economic reasons and remain excluded from basic government disaster relief.

Multi-stakeholder dialogue on the experience of inundation and flooding in the Kosi River Basin conducted by Gorakhpur Environmental Action Group (Photo: Malavika Thirukode / The Asia Foundation)

Moving from water management to inclusive water governance

Water—its scarcity or abundance—shapes ecosystems and communities. Governments in the Kosi River Basin have pursued a centralized, institutional approach to water governance that has focused on irrigation, flood control embankments, and hydroelectric development.

Experts have observed that inhabitants of the disaster-prone basin live with piecemeal information on environmental risks. Adapting to new extreme weather scenarios requires regional and subregional support systems, projects, and laws.

What is needed is a citizen-centered approach that involves local communities in managing water resources. 

When community stakeholders in the basin are involved in resource management, their knowledge of local conditions and familiarity with their own needs create opportunities for more informed, inclusive, and integrated solutions.

The Asia Foundation has partnered with the Gorakhpur Environmental Action Group (GEAG) and the Centre for Policy Research in India, and with ISET-Nepal and Policy Entrepreneurs Inc. in Nepal, to better understand the lives of communities in the basin and their water governance needs. 

The project has launched multi-stakeholder dialogues and knowledge-sharing initiatives to develop evidence-based water governance mechanisms and transboundary collaborations in the basin. 

A Transboundary Citizen’s Forum has built the capacity of partner organizations to promote community understanding, trust, and collaboration.

Towards transboundary water cooperation

Several mechanisms for cooperation on ecological conservation and resilience already exist. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 highlights the need for collaborative, regional response mechanisms and revised institutional mandates. 

The Thimphu Statement on climate change emphasizes regional cooperation, the sharing of best practices, and an integrated approach to climate change in South Asia. 

Other initiatives include intergovernmental platforms for disaster preparedness and information-sharing support for communities to better anticipate and plan for disasters. 

Pilot projects are needed to develop local strategies. The time has come to “coexist with the river” rather than opposing its flow.

Malavika Thirukode is a Program Officer and Manvi Tripathi is a former Intern with the Asia Foundation’s India-U.S. Triangular Development Partnership (TriDeP). 

Malavika can be reached at: malavika.thirukode@asiafoundation.org. 

The views and opinions expressed here are those of the authors, not those of The Asia Foundation.

This piece was previously published on The Asia Foundation’s InAsia blog on March 16, 2022.

Categories
Climate Adaptation, South Asia Integrated Water Resources Management Regional

Exploring the Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater Resources

Climate change has brought about increased temperature and shifts in precipitation patterns around the world, impacting the water resources sector. 

The IPCC’s sixth assessment report (AR6) highlights that changes in extremes have been observed, causing extreme weather events such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts, and tropical cyclones due to global warming.

Continued global warming is projected to further intensify the global water cycle, spreading its variability, global monsoon precipitation pattern, and the severity of wet and dry events, impacting availability of water resources and their management throughout the world. 

Groundwater is an important component of the freshwater regime for agriculture, drinking water supplies, and sustaining ecosystems.

It modulates the temperature and baseflow of rivers, lakes and wetlands; regulates exchanges of nutrients and minerals; and prevents land subsidence and seawater intrusion. 

Groundwater, often unseen and neglected, holds immense promise in our adaptation to climate change and needs to be judiciously managed.

According to the United Nations World Water Development Report 2022 (UNWWDR 2022), which uses 2017 data, the global rates for withdrawal of freshwater exceeds 3,881 km3 per year, with groundwater contributing about a quarter of the total withdrawal. 

Estimates show that about 959 km3 (959 trillion liters) of groundwater were withdrawn in 2017, out of which 69 percent was for agriculture, 22 percent for domestic and 9 percent for industrial use.

Groundwater is important, for agriculture – food production and security, while domestic use, though smaller in volume, is critical for survival. Almost 50 percent of the global urban population depends on groundwater as the primary source for drinking water and its societal importance far outweighs the volume of extraction.

Figure 1: Groundwater Withdrawal Volumes and Its Share in
Freshwater Withdrawal in the Continents
(Data from UNWWDR, 2022)

Sound groundwater management actions need to be implemented to better safeguard this vital resource

Asia withdraws the highest volume of freshwater: 2,505 km3 every year, of which 657 km3 is groundwater. This represents about 69 percent of the total world groundwater extraction. 

These figures are large for Asia, due to its large population and water-intensive agricultural practices in the region. Groundwater withdrawal in South Asia alone is about 401 km3 per year. 

Groundwater is a spread resource, available where there is an aquifer and providing direct access to consumers. It is generally of a high quality, and is not directly impacted by rainfall variability. 

It is also less polluted than surface water. This poses opportunities for exploitation as well as constraints in the management of this valuable resource. 

Water resources management, on a broad scale, requires information on future water availability and requirements of a finer temporal and spatial resolution, to decide on new projects as well as on the operation and maintenance of existing systems.

The existing and future needs and demands are both affected by climate change at the river-basin and local scales. It is certain that the future demands on groundwater and reliance on this resource will increase due to the increasing uncertainty of surface water. 

Surface water is directly impacted by climate change and its ushering in of extreme events, more intense rainfall and floods, along with extended periods of drought which create water stresses. 

This will potentially increase the rates of groundwater extraction, lowering water tables of already-stressed aquifers.

The direct impacts of climate change on groundwater is still the subject of research. The recharge of aquifers takes place via widespread “evaporation-surplus” rain as well as express recharge pathways such as leakage from rivers, ephemeral streams, wetlands, or lakes. Groundwater systems respond at a slower pace to climate change than surface-water systems. 

Rising temperature reduces water available for infiltration by evaporating more water from the surface, soil profile, and even, shallow aquifers, enhancing soil salinity and raising the temperature of shallow groundwater, with possible repercussions on the physio-chemical properties of water.

Conceptual Representation of Key Interactions between
Groundwater and Climate (Taylor et al., 2013)

Variabilities in rainfall affect groundwater differently. It is commonly believed that in humid areas, intense rainfall of a shorter duration limits the time available for infiltration; top soil remains saturated during precipitation and a higher portion of rainfall is partitioned into runoff, thus reducing groundwater recharge.

Variations in aquifer recharge not only change the aquifer yield or discharge, they can also modify the groundwater flow network; e.g. gaining streams may suddenly become losing streams, groundwater divides may change position. 

It should be noted that the effect of climate change on groundwater is often impacted by indirect effects, introduced by anthropogenic choices in response to adapting to climate change.

In mountainous areas, snow and glacier melt generally dominate mountain hydrology. Groundwater contribution to runoff can be significant during the spring and the dry season, providing a perennial or seasonal groundwater supply to mountainous springs and ecosystems. 

Melting snow, permafrost and glaciers provide a steady water supply for infiltration in the near future, while the distant future could face water scarcity due to the absence of these storages of water. 

Climate change impacts are often blamed for a reduction in the flow – or even the drying-up – of springs in Nepal, as well as in Sikkim, in the Eastern Himalayas; but these could be complicated by anthropogenic reasons including land use changes. 

The alteration of groundwater quality due to overextraction or polluted runoff including contaminants from fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides or municipal wastes such as pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs), perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAs) and even sewage leakages, are all issues that need to be strictly controlled and managed to assure the sustainability of this vital resource. 

It should be understood that climate change’s effects on groundwater are amplified by our actions. The net effect of climate change on groundwater depends not only on changing climatic conditions but also on the physical characteristics of a region, human actions and management decisions.

Sound groundwater management actions need to be implemented to better safeguard this vital resource and enhance our adaptive capabilities, with a better understanding of the impacts of climate change and human interventions on groundwater. 

The CARE for South Asia project is carrying out the scoping study on impact of climate change on groundwater resource in Nepal in to better understand the ground realities and the necessity for planning ahead. 

The writer is Water Resources Management Specialist in Nepal at ADPC and can be reached at: laxman.sharma@adpc.net