Background
A strong earthquake occurred just off the coast of Indonesia on 26 December 2004, which set off a tsunami that devastated several countries located in the Indian Ocean basin. The human toll and the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) were extremely high: 228,000 deaths and still many missing persons, and nearly 1.7 million people in temporary relief camps. Individual assessments were undertaken to ascertain the value of damage and losses and the needs for rehabilitation and reconstruction in the most affected countries. Preliminary aggregations of the partial reports available thus far show that the 2004 disaster caused damage to infrastructure and other assets to the tune of over US$ 5 billion . No aggregated figure on the losses in production and on other economic activities and indicators can be arrived at this time, since not all assessments include such estimates.

These assessments were made having different purposes in mind and provide a first indication of the impact sustained by the affected countries and regions. More detailed analyses are needed in order to ascertain the medium-term impact of the disaster on the society, economy and environment of the affected area. The determination of the total socio-economic impact on the region as well as the medium-term overview that is presently lacking can be undertaken using available assessment tools in combination with information available in the countries. A comparative analysis of damage and losses in each affected country would enable the identification of common areas or sectors where the countries may undertake joint or concerted activities for disaster mitigation and risk management.

The experience in assessing the case of hurricane Mitch in Central America (in 1998) can be used in this respect. And the damage and loss assessment methodology developed by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean can be utilized.

See ECLAC, Handbook for Estimating the Socioeconomic and Environmental Impact of Disasters, 2 nd Edition, 2003.

The Project

he activity, funded by the World Bank's Hazard Management Unit will carry out a regional analysis of the 26 December 2004 earthquake and Indian Ocean tsunami and in a subsequent phase identify actions that, undertaken jointly by the countries, will result in significant economies of scale for disaster and risk management. The regional project is to be executed by the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC), with technical support from individual international consultants and in close cooperation with and using the methodology developed by UN ECLAC. In the post-disaster assessments carried out by the World Bank and ADB the ECLAC methodology was used in the Marmara (1998) and Gujarat (2001) earthquakes, in the Mozambique floods (2000) and other cases. In addition, the Regional workshop on "Reconstruction Needs Analysis, Planning and Implementation" held in August 2002, co-organized by World Bank, ProVention Consortium and ADPC, it was recommended that the ECLAC methodology be adopted for wider use in Asia. ADPC, in collaboration with ECLAC, is undertaking a study for the Gujarat State Disaster Management Agency (GSDMA) in developing a Damage & Loss Assessment Methodology and system in the state of Gujarat, India. It is also to be noted that a UNDP UNESCAP joint study to assess socio economic impact of hydro-meteorological disasters is underway in 6 countries of the region.

A similar study, as is being proposed here, was conducted by UN-ECLAC following hurricane Mitch, which also had impacts at a regional level. The proposed study will draw on the Methodology followed and the lessons learned in the Mitch Study.

Objectives
The development objective of the proposed project is to mitigate the socioeconomic and environmental impact of disasters in South East Asia through financial risk management. The immediate objective is to determine the immediate and medium term socioeconomic and environmental impacts of the 26 December 2004 disaster in order to contribute to the nascent body of knowledge related to the socio-economic impacts of disasters.

Outputs and Activities

Output 1. Assessment of Immediate and Medium Term Impact of Disaster in the Region . The following activities are to be carried out in order to produce this output:

·    Activity 1a. Assessment of impact in Thailand : Since no consolidated assessment of damage and losses has been compiled for the case of Thailand , data gathering and analysis will be undertaken for this country.

·    Activity 1b. Updates of the assessments conducted in India, Indonesia, Maldives, and Sri Lanka : Medium-term impact analyses for the four countries will be conducted, supplementing existing reports and estimations. Consultation with lead agencies in Governments of the four countries and country offices of World Bank to collect any updates/refinements will also be undertaken.

·    Activity 1c. Overall impact of the disaster in the affected countries: A comparative analysis of the overall immediate and medium-term impact of the disaster on the socio-economic and environmental conditions of the countries will be carried out to ascertain the total amount of damage and losses, based on the reports prepared.

·    Activity 1d. Comparative analysis of disaster impact: An analysis will be undertaken to determine the commonalities and singularities of the disaster's effects, arising from the different conditions of the economies and their exposure to natural phenomena with a view to preparing in a second phase for specific financial risk transfer proposals.

Output 2. Regional Meeting of Advisory Panel:

Presentation and discussion of results. An Advisory Panel to the study comprising government officials (up to 2 key personnel from each of the affected countries) is to be convened to provide consultative guidance to the study. World Bank officials from each country office, preferably those involved in the assessment are also proposed to be associated. A presentation and discussion of the results of the comparative analysis of damage and losses caused by the earthquake/tsunami disaster in the entire region would be done at a meeting of the Panel proposed to be convened in the last week of the study. Participants' comments would be used to prepare a final version of the regional assessment. Advisory panel members will also guide the refinement of activities proposed to be undertaken in a follow up Phase 2.

Output 3.Final project report . ADPC will prepare a final project report describing the results of the project and the outcome of the regional meeting.

This report will be a joint publication of the World Bank and ADPC. It is planned to publish 800 copies of the final study for wide circulation in the countries and among other major stakeholders in the region and worldwide. It is expected that ADPC will provide support to ensure that the proposals for regional cooperation for disaster and financial risk management are designed under phase 2 and taken up for implementation.