Climate and Extreme Events in the Asia-Pacific: Enhancing Resilience and Improving Decision-Making
20th Pacific Sciences Congress
Bangkok, Thailand
March 2003

According to the 2000 World Disaster Report, over 80% of the world’s climate-related disasters occurred in Asia (International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 2000).  While acknowledging the lack of sufficient observational data to accurately assess trends and the need for enhanced spatial detail in models used to project changes in some phenomena, the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC TAR) provides some estimates of scientific confidence in observed and projected changes in extreme events (IPCC, 2001).  Many of the conditions discussed, such as more intense precipitation events, increased summer continental drying with associated risk of drought and changes in tropical cyclone wind and precipitation intensities, have significant potential consequences for countries of the Asia-Pacific Region.  Similarly, the IPCC TAR also points to likely increases in the extremes of drying and heavy rainfall associated with El Niño and an increase in the variability of Asian summer monsoon rainfall (IPCC, 2001).  The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is associated with changes in patterns of extreme events such as droughts, floods and tropical cyclones that already present significant challenges to Asia-Pacific countries. 

 During the past decade, a number of research programs designed to enhance our understanding of the nature and consequences of climate-related extreme events in the Asia-Pacific region and explore the application of climate information to support decision-making have emerged.  Some of the more prominent examples include:  the Extreme Climate Events (ECE) program implemented by the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC); the Pacific ENSO Applications Center (PEAC); regional climate assessments such as the East-West Center’s recently completed Pacific Islands regional contribution to the first U.S. National Assessment; and the Pacific Islands Climate Change Assistance Program (PICCAP) coordinated by the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP).  In parallel, regional organizations like ADPC, the South Pacific Applied Geosciences Commission (SOPAC) and the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) have been developing integrated assessment techniques and new technologies to support the development of comprehensive emergency management programs in the region.  To date, however, no attempt has been made to synthesize the results of these individual programs in terms of their implications for the development and application of useful and usable climate information in the Asia-Pacific region.

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20th Pacific Science Congress