The start-up strategy session to launch the ECE Program was held at ADPC from 19-20 October 1998. The session was attended by delegations from the program's three pilot target countries, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, representatives from the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center (ASMC), La Red (a Latin American network of NGOs, individuals and organizations working on disaster prevention), ADPC, USAID, NOAA, and the U.S. Department of State.

Key Objectives of the Strategy Session

The key objective of the start-up strategy session was to share the preliminary design of the current program on extreme climate events, brainstorm on its different components and obtain strategic guidance from the key stakeholders.

The start-up strategy session was geared towards generating the following outputs:

• An indicative implementation plan for the program that identifies:
  • the key issues that the program should address;
  • appropriate institutional contacts (in different sectors) for information gathering and dissemination; and
  • appropriate time frame for various activities.

• Preliminary identification of potential partners for Component I (documentation process) in the three study countries.

  SUMMARY OF OUTCOMES

  The two-day Strategy Session was structured around nine sessions and dealt in detail with the three proposed components of the program and an implementation strategy for each one of them. The outcomes of the deliberations are summarized in the following sections:

  Climate Prediction in Southeast Asia

  National Level

  Experts from the meteorological agencies of the program's three pilot target countries, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam reviewed the development of climate prediction capabilities, their current status and applications in their countries. It was observed that the three countries present unique cases in terms of the level of climate forecasting capabilities, their applications and inter-agency coordination at the national level. The discussions were focused on identifying the issues that the ECE program should address. It was recognized that the Philippines CLIMPS program had identified in detail the requirements at national level for the assessment of impacts of climate variability. This listing (Box 1) presents a useful initial framework for the ECE program for looking at the climate prediction capabilities at the national level

Regional Level

Representatives from ASMC and NOAA presented a brief overview of their recent work towards production of climate forecast guidance for the region. The NOAA representatives presented the most recent climate forecast products produced by the International Research Institute (IRI). The need for greater regional and international cooperation in developing a regional capability to produce regional climate forecast guidance was emphasized.

The meeting identified the following specific issues that need to be addressed in order to facilitate regional forecast production:

• recovery and digitization of historical climate data
• exchange of historical data
• exchange and analysis of real-time data
• development of regional forecast methods
• links to applications for user feedback
• climate scientist collaboration at regional/ international level

Following were identified as the key regional support functions:

• climate database exchange
• expansion of database beyond what goes into GTS to produce higher resolution product
  • Resources
  • Willingness
• exchange/ compilation of national forecasts
• real-time data exchange
• MetSat data from ESCAP and national sources
• climate forecast models run by and developed by ASMC
• interpretation of forecasts for decision-making

The three key areas of cooperation identified included: regional model development; data exchange; and exploring linkages (and hence feedback mechanisms) with the national decision making processes. The ASMC in collaboration with IRI would be willing to take the lead in the development and running of a regional climate-forecasting model. The pre-requisites for replication of a forecast model in the Southeast Asian context would be financial resources; information, training and human resources; and accessibility of data inputs. Further improvements of regional climate model outputs will depend on improved understanding of the physical processes underlying variability in the region and the increased availability of good data sets.

The meeting agreed that an appropriate strategy for developing regional capability for climate forecasting applications would be to start with the ECE program study countries. Residency programs at ASMC for national scientists from the participating countries could be started to strengthen the linkages between regional and national level efforts. Such program would require institutional commitment from the national agencies. WMO could be explored as one possible source of financing such arrangements. It was recognized that a regional climate forecasting system should:

• take into account required timing of forecast outputs for individual countries;
• be based on forecasting models that take into account factors affecting the regional climate; and
• select appropriate models in generating forecasts to ensure highest seasonal skill.

Translating Climate Forecasts into Applications

Detailed discussions were held on issues related to translating climate forecast guidance into applications. In the context of the ECE program, the strategy-session concluded that:

• The applications aspect of the ECE program should have a national level focus.
• Users and their actual information needs should be clearly identified in each country
• Historical and real-time hazard data and effects data should be collected. DesInventar system developed and implemented by LA RED in Latin America was recognized as an appropriate tool in this process (refer to Box 2).
• The collection and analysis of the above mentioned data will help in the calibration of climate extremes.
• The above mentioned steps will enable "hindcasting" of hazard conditions based on disaster data.

Application Activities

Detailed discussions were held on the applications aspects of the program. The meeting recognized the need for educating the policy makers at the highest level on the possibilities offered by applications of climate forecasts. The need for public education and community training in high-risk areas was also highlighted. In the context of the ECE program, the meeting validated the preliminary implementation plan presented by ADPC:

• The main follow-up activity immediately after the strategy session will be a 2-day start-up workshop in the study countries. These workshops will help finalize the scope of the program in each study country. Institutional contacts and inter-agency relationships in each of the study countries will be identified. A preliminary listing of important ministries and departments was prepared for each of the three study countries (please see Box 3).

• Workshops for interface between end-users and climate forecasting community.

• It is envisaged that the program will help develop methods for impact assessment (consequence analysis) using climate forecasts. These methods should then be imparted with a wide range of end users.

• Exchange between the study countries of lessons learned through national level workshops.
   

  Box 3: Important Institutional Contacts in Dealing with Consequences of Extreme Climate Events

  Philippines Department of Agriculture Department of Water Resources Department of Energy Department of Public Health Department of Economic Affairs Department of Social Welfare

  Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Forestry Ministry of Water Resources Management National Committee on Flood and Typhoon Prediction Industry and Energy Production Ministry of Fisheries

  Indonesia Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Forestry and Plantation Ministry of Social Affairs Ministry of Public Health Ministry of Marine Issues

  Communication Strategy

  The meeting identified the following issues for the media component of the ECE program:

   

• How to disseminate climate information in the most effective way, i.e. how should the forecast be phrased for the media.

• More proactive media strategy is required not only as a vehicle of communication but also as an important self-defense for the forecasting community.

• There is need to identify media contacts with ongoing interest in climate variability and related issues. Media focal point in each of the study countries press bureaus in the government as well as the private sector.

• The analytical results from DesInventar can be provided to the media.

• The media should be provided with a complete picture i.e. not only the forecast of the climate but also of the consequences.

  Start-up workshops in the study countries

  As a follow-on to the start-up strategy session, start-up workshops will be held in each of the study countries. Within their institutional limitations the country delegations agreed to facilitate the process in their respective countries. In the Philippines, a start-up workshop was tentatively proposed in the last week of November or the first week of December under the leadership of Department of Agriculture. In Vietnam, the start-up workshop may be scheduled in January. In Indonesia, discussions will have to be held with BAKORNAS PB for the organization of a start-up workshop.