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Asian Regional
Meeting on El Niño-Related Crises Summary of Events | Key Outcomes | Annex A | Annex B | Annex C The occasional warming of sea surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, named El Nino, is now known to have important consequences for weather and climate-related processes around the globe. Some of these consequences include: increased rainfall (and resulting floods), droughts, reduced number but increased intensity of typhoons, and secondary impacts such as adverse effects on the coastal ecosystems, wild fire, bush fires etc. A large part of the world's population is affected by these changes in climate-related processes. There is an ever-growing realization that these linkages need to be better understood, and the policy and decision makers, as well as the general public, are informed and equipped to make timely use of the research findings. As the 1997-98 El Nino event developed into the most significant climate event of this century, the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) took the initiative to host an Asian Regional Meeting on El Nino Related Crises. The event, sponsored by the United States Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/ OFDA), was held in Bangkok from 2-6 February 1998. This very successful meeting was attended by 130 delegates from 21 countries including those of the Asia and Pacific regions, and received worldwide media coverage. It brought together national policy and decision-makers (from various sectors including public health and population welfare, industry and economy, natural resources and environment, and industry and economy), regional and international climate scientists and organizations, disaster managers from countries of the region, representatives from the international humanitarian assistance community, bilateral and multilateral donors, the Asian Development Bank, NGOs, and regional media representatives. The meeting brought into focus the importance of long-lead forecasts in alleviating social and economic costs related to climate variations and the need for political and financial support to establish an integrated regional climate information system. The meeting also emphasized the need for regional cooperation and its long-term benefits to the Asian community. Based on recommendations of the meeting, a number of follow-up actions are being envisaged including the setting-up of a "Regional Climate Forum" and a "Regional Strategic Planning Committee", the establishment of a Pilot Regional Information Clearing House at ADPC as an operational instrument of the above two for a, and development of a long-term multi-institutional program on "Regional Capacity Building for Climate Forecasting and Applications". The magnitude of the 1997-98 El Nino event and the severity of its impacts have brought international attention to two issues. Firstly , the international meteorological community is now able to forecast El Nino and La Nina occurrences with far greater reliability. Secondly, with such climate forecasts there exists a potential to prepare contingency plans to mitigate the foreseeable adverse impacts. The strong participation at the meeting by regional governments representing a diverse cross-section of concerned agencies attests to the importance attached to El Nino and the crises created by it. The meeting provided a crucial interface between the meteorologists and the national agencies charged with responding to crises caused by significant disruptions to normal climatic cycles by events like El Nino. The meeting also helped highlight that major climatic events like El Nino tend to magnify human mistakes and lack of planning. The meeting, which facilitated the exchange between professionals, helped crystallize the potentials and limitations in forecasting such events. It showed that great strides have been made in forecasting ENSO events (with six to nine months horizons), but also indicated that the correlation between ENSO events with changes in the normal climate cycles varies significantly among countries in the region. The meeting further highlighted the need for additional study on the impact that temperature fluctuations in the Indian Ocean may have on the weather patterns and rainfall for South and Southeast Asia. Discussion also took place on the current constraints in getting information to potential users both in a timely manner and in a format which can be understood and acted on. To provide the dialogue with context, the meeting was preceded by a one day "Southeastern Asia Regional Climate Outlook Forum" attended by regional and international meteorology experts to produce a climate outlook for the first quarter of 1998. The Statement of the Regional Climate Outlook Forum is attached as Annex B. The meeting agenda addressed regional and international short term and long term capability enhancement in four strategic areas including: forecasting & early warning, impact assessment, public education and information, and contingency planning. During the proceedings, delegates were assigned to working groups to look at four distinct but interrelated sectors:
A Summary of the Working Group Discussions is attached as Annex A. In its position paper for the meeting, ADPC called for: the establishment of a well coordinated Regional Climate Information System to enhance decision-making; increased focus on the affected communities themselves; development of standard codes of practice for contingency planning; exchange of information on Best Practices; development of a regional cooperation framework; and expansion of the global research agenda to better understand the impacts of extreme climate variability on public health, environment and the economy.
The meeting concluded with three key outcomes: 1. A Statement by delegates of the Asian Regional Meeting calling upon National Governments, Regional and International Organizations to:
2. A recommendation for the establishment of a Regional Climate Guidance Forum, consisting of climate experts (national, regional, international) to engage in on-going dialogue to provide climate guidance to the countries of the region. 3. A recommendation for the establishment of a Regional Strategic Planning Committee on Climate Impact, representative of key stakeholder groups in the region to develop and implement a climate information and management framework. The Meeting nominated ADPC to be the convenor and facilitator for these two fora.
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