5. Climate Forecasts
and Early Warning
INTRODUCTION
Developments during the last
decade have led to a new definition of climate services and the emergence
of new priorities in the presentation and use of climate information,
especially in relation to extreme climate events, such as the El Nino
and La Nina phenomena. The consequences of this change in perspective
of climate services brings new opportunities in the utilization of
climate information for economic and societal decision-making at the
national and regional level.
Documenting and analyzing the
impacts of extreme climate events are not easy as they require a multi-disciplinary
approach. Present day assessment methods for evaluating the impacts
of these events are not particularly precise, and it is more likely
that the actual costs of the impacts of such events on the economy
and the environment are much greater than is generally presented in
these assessments,
The present workshop is the
initial activity under a 3-part program aimed at enhancing national
capabilities in the prediction and monitoring of extreme climate events
such as the El Niœo and La Niœa phenomena, and the assessment of their
impacts on the economy and the environment.
PROCEEDINGS
I.
Opening Ceremonies
After the participants have registered,
simple ceremonies ushering the official start of the workshop began
with the singing of the National Anthem, followed by the traditional
Invocation.
In her Welcome Address, Dr. Clarita
Carlos of the National Defense College of the Philippines (NDCP) gave
a brief but very enlightening report on her recent trip to Bangkok
where she represented the country in a regional conference on disaster
management, which highlighted disaster management as a regional undertaking
and that since disaster know no national boundaries, the collaboration
and cooperation of and among governments of the region is essential.
She greeted the participants with a warm welcome and congratulated
the various agencies who helped to make the workshop a reality.
Mr. Cipriano C. Ferraris, Deputy
Director of the PAGASA for Research and Development, delivered a message
in behalf of Dr. Leoncio A. Amadore, PAGASA Director, who had to attend
to an earlier commitment. In his message, Mr. Ferraris acknowledged
the initiatives being taken by ADPC to assist countries in Southeast
Asia as very timely and significant, considering the disastrous effects
that these events bring to the economies of the countries in the region.
He cited the objectives of the ADPC program as very laudable that
merits the support of governments in the region, and expressed his
confidence that the aims of the present workshop would be very adequately
met.
The Honorable Orlando S. Mercado,
Secretary of National Defense and Chairman of the National Disaster
Coordinating Council (NDCC), had to rush to the south for an ocular
inspection of the reported flash floods in Mindanao, and was, therefore,
unable to grace the opening ceremonies to deliver the keynote address.
However, he left word that he would try to make it to the workshop
if his schedule for the day would permit.
II. Technical
Presentations
1.
Extreme Climate Events - by Dr. Aida M. Jose
Dr. A. Jose, Scientist I and
Chief of the Climatology and Agrometeorology Branch of PAGASA, began
her presentation with an introduction of the climate system in general,
a description of the countryØs climate, and the climate controls that
influence and produce the observed changes in the behavior of the
various climatic elements. She described the seasonal abnormalities
that affect the country, identified flood and storm surge prone areas
and enumerated some of the important information and statistics on
Philippine climate, which can be summarized as follows:
- The country suffers from
droughts, floods and strong winds associated with weather systems
and patterns such as tropical cyclones, the monsoons, and the larger
scale climate patterns we have come to know as the El Nino and La
Nina phenomena.
- An average of 20 tropical
cyclones occur within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility
(PAR) every year of which, 8 to 9 cross the country,
- Most disastrous typhoons occur
in November and December, while cyclones occurring in July, August
and September are enhanced by the southwest monsoon.
- During the period from 1948
to 1998, the early 1970's had the most number of tropical cyclone
occurrence.
- In the disastrous rainfall
event of 1972 associated with Typhoon "Didang", the highest 24-hour
rainfall recorded was 371 mm., which is 3 times the montly average.
- During the prolonged floods
of July 1972 associated with the intensified southwest monsoon and
4 tropical cyclones which were then affecting the country, over
1,000 mm. of rainfall was recorded in 30 days of heavy rainfall,
with only one day without rain.
Dr. Jose also discussed the El
Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, a global scale, naturally
occurring cycle, which is actually composed of two phases; namely,
the El Nino (or warm phase), and the La Nina (or cold phase). A visual
presentation of a time series graph for the period 1950-2000 was displayed
on a large projection screen for the benefit of the participants,
showing the various warm and cold episodes. The following observations
were noted:
- There were more warm and cold
episodes than normal seasons recorded during the period.
- There were more El ino years
than La Nina in the last two decades.
- The time series graph of sea
surface temperatures over the central equatorial Pacific showed
alternating occurrences of El Nino and La Nina episodes.
The general climatic conditions
that prevail during El Nino and La Nina episodes were discussed in
detail.
Based on available data from
various government agencies, a summary of the damages suffered by
agriculture brought about by typhoons, floods and droughts were also
presented.
2.
Overview: Documentation and Analysis of Impacts of and Responses to
Extreme Climate Events - by Mr. Kamal Kishore
The ADPC representative provided
important insights into the ADPC Program for Understanding Extreme
Climate Events (ECE), which is a follow-up initiative to the Asian
Regional Meeting on El Nino Related Crises held in February in collaboration
with the USAID/OFDA and the NOAA. The program aims at improving the
understanding of extreme climate events and their impact on society
and the environment in Southeast Asia. It is funded by the OFDA and
is currently being implemented in Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines.
Citing scientific advancements
that have been attained worldwide, he noted that it was time to translate
these advances into local level applications. The awareness level
in the Philippines was also noted which he described as the strongest
among the three countries included in the program and that the country
has a lot of experience and lessons that it can share with other countries.
Mr. Kishore happily informed
the participants that he was overwhelmed by the level of support extended
to the project by the NDCC, the NDCP, the OCD and the PAGASA. He congratulated
and thanked the local Organizing Committee for the excellent preparations
that have been put in place for the workshop.
Important historical facts about
the program were discussed, beginning with the 1997-1998 El Nino event
(considered as the climate event of the century) that led to the series
of international meetings where action areas were identified to address
concerns and formulate strategies for implementing the program. The
principal objectives of the program and its 3 major components were
presented. The general plan of action for component no. 1, which is
the subject of the present workshop, was also presented, and explained
in detail.
3.
Climate Forecasts and Applications - by Dr. Aida M. Jose
The formulation of seasonal and
inter-annual climate predictions, which are based on ENSO dynamics,
was presented and discussed. It was explained that the ENSO occurring
in the central equatorial Pacific affects the climate of the Philippines
which, in turn, impact on various sectors in the form of floods, droughts,
etc. Documenting past ENSO events can be utilized in deriving certain
outputs that can be useful to climate prediction. Global climate forecasts
produced by global climate centers in the U.S.A., U.K. Australia,
etc., can be translated into local climate forecasts, with inputs
from economic sectors.
Climate forecasts are produced
as a component of the Drought Early Warming and Monitoring System
(DEWMS) being implemented through the PAGASA. Examples of products
generated under the DEWMS, like advisories and updates, were presented
and discussed. Inputs used in the generation of DEWMS products include,
among others, indicators and indices of rainfall for assessing potential
impacts, excerpts of outputs from global climate centers, global seas
surface temperature (SST) anomalies as basis for seasonal climate
forecasts. It was noted that the latest information on global SST
anomalies indicates the possible onset of another El Nino episode
after the on-going La Nina.
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Open
Forum
Following is a summary
of the question and answer session that took place immediately
after the technical presentations.
Q. In a recent update on
rainfall released by PAGASA, abnormal rainfall is predicted.
How accurate is this?
A. As mentioned in the
presentation made earlier, there are indications of a possible
El Nino episode after the on-going La Nina based on the latest
analysis of global sea surface temperatures. In such an event,
below normal rainfall can be expected as in previous El Nino
episodes.
Q. Does the observed pattern
of rainfall similar to that of previous El Nino warrant preparations/
planning for a new El Nino?
A. Yes. It is wise to plan
ahead since El Nino signals in the Philippines are strong. It
was added (by Mr. Ferraris) that based on the latest global
climate models, there is a semblance of El Nino occurring towards
the end of the year, although still subject to further observation
and verification. It is best to be prepared even as there still
is a certain degree of uncertainty.
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III.
SECTORAL PRESENTATIONS ON IMPACTS AND RESPONSES
1.
Agriculture
The effects of El Nino on agriculture
were discussed. It was noted that the impacts on agriculture were
generally negative, reflecting a 7% decline in production during the
last El Nino episode. The Department of Agriculture (DA) fully appreciates
the task at hand but, unfortunately, it does not have the necessary
forecast models.
Information was presented on
the Disaster Response and Monitoring System, which the DA has put
in place, with the two-pronged objective of mitigation and rehabilitation.
At the core of the system is the National Disaster Response Center,
also referred to as the National Command Center (or just plain Command
Center for short), which is mainly responsible for coordinating disaster-related
activities of the DA nationwide. Under the Command Center is the Operations
Control and Coordinating Team tasked with undertaking surveys and
assessments of damages from disasters. The team is composed of the
Field Operations Group of the DA, the Bureau of Soils, and other DA
agencies. The Analysis Team, composed of the MIS staff of the DA,
the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS), etc., is in charge of
evaluating disaster threats and their potential impacts.
The National Command Center is
replicated at the regional level as the Regional Command Center, responsible
for mobilizing DA regional offices for preparedness and mitigation
measures at the regional level. Agency Command Centers are also in
place to coordinate with the national and regional command centers.
Upon advise from relevant agencies
such as the NDCC, command centers are automatically activated at all
levels. During a calamity, the entire system is placed in emergency
mode. It reverts to non-emergency mode after the calamity. Standardized
reporting formats are used by all field units of the DA and the final
validated reports are due within 10 days.
2.
Water Resources
The impacts of extreme climate
events were presented and discussed. Salient points of the presentation
are summarized below:
- Significant extreme climate
events that impact on the water resources sector are the El Nino
and La Nina phenomena. Of the two, La Nina is the friendly one.
- In Angat, minimum inflows
were recorded in 1997-98 because of ENSO. From October 1997 to August,
inflows into the dam were consistently below the normal.
- From the 4th Quarter of 1997
to the 3rd Quarter of 1998, records of water levels in the dam were
all below the Rule Curve established by the National Water Resources
Board (NWRB) for water reservoir elevation.
- Ground water resources are
impacted by El Nino, resulting in salt water intrusion.
- Manganese concentrations
in water resources have significantly increased.
- Stream flows have also been
significantly affected.
Also discussed were contingency
measures needed to combat or mitigate the effects of El Nino, which
include the close watch of developments as reported by PAGASA, close
monitoring of dams and reservoirs, exploration of long term measures
and improvement of the operations of local water systems.
With regards to La Nina, its
most significant effect on the water sector is the increased inflow,
as observed at the Angat Dam. The NWRB has adopted two Rule Curves
for dams and reservoirs; namely, the Flood Rule Curve, which is the
maximum allowable water elevation and the Operation Rule Curve, which
is the minimum water level required at all times. The use of the rule
curves in the operation of dams and reservoirs were explained and
discussed in detail.
3.
Health and Environment
Important facts about general
trends in health in the country were discussed and can be summarized
as follows:
- The double burden of illness
involving: (a) infectious diseases for the young population; and
(b) lifestyle diseases for the older population.
- Vulnerability to epidemics.
- Endemic diseases that recur
regularly.
- Emerging and re-emerging infections,
Concerning the relationship between
climate and disease forecasting, it was noted that there are no available
that correlate climate or climate changes to disease patterns. Disease
forecasting is based on historical trends and epidemiologic studies.
For the detection of epidemics, the DOH maintains 76 sentinel sites
nationwide for active surveillance of diseases.
Contingency plans for health
hazards were discussed involving alert systems in place, disaster
response teams, community preparedness, disease surveillance and networking.
It was suggested that emergency preparedness would be better served
through a multi-sectoral approach even as it was noted that mitigation
activities depended much on available resources.
4.
Disaster Management
An overview of the disaster management
system in the country was presented, as implemented through the National
Disaster Coordinating Center (NDCC) and the Office of Civil Defense
(OCD), outlining efforts to reinforce the system and the lessons learned
in responding to extreme climate events. Hazards and Disasters in
the country were discussed particularly those that are climate-related.
As the most disaster-prone country in the world, the Philippines suffered
from 7,401 disaster events in the past 28 years, with total damage
tp property estimated at P196.979 billion.
As presented, he Philippine Disaster
Management System is described as a coordinative system among agencies
of government in handling disaster situations and in responding to
specific emergencies. Institutional arrangements involved and current
disaster preparedness initiatives were presented and discussed in
detail.
5.
Socio-Economic Impacts
In the presentation given by
the NEDA representative, the need for assessments based on empirical
data and information was stressed. The following factors were identified
as important to consider in the assessment of impacts:
Physical vulnerability
- Coastal communities as most
vulnerable to storm surges.
- Agriculture is most vulnerable
to typhoons, floods and drought.
Social vulnerability
- Population density, means
of livelihood, etc.
- Analysis limited to macro
level.
Economic vulnerability
- Difficult to quantify in
relation to typhoons.
Also discussed were the factors
affecting socio-economic analysis.
IV. IMPLEMENTATION
PLANS BY SECTOR
1.
Agriculture and Food Security (PDF format)
2.
Water Resources (PDF format)
3.
Environment and Health (PDF format)
4.
Disaster Management (PDF format)
5.
Climate Forecasts and Early Warning (PDF format)
