BACKGROUND NOTE

In the wake of the 1997-1998 El Nino event, the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) took the initiative to enhance the capacity of key Southeast Asian nations to deal with the ensuing crises. ADPC, in collaboration with NOAA and with support from OFDA, hosted the Asian Regional Meeting on El Nino Related Crises in Bangkok from 2 to 6 February 1998. The Meeting brought together over 120 participants including national policy and decision makers, regional and international climate scientists and organizations, disaster managers from countries of the region, representatives from the international humanitarian assistance community including bilateral and multilateral donors and NGOs, and regional media representatives.

The Asian Regional Meeting on El Nino Related Crises underlined the severity of the 1997-98 El Nino event and its impact, and noted the following:

• Understanding of the effects of these events on society and the environment in the region is still limited.

• Few integrated efforts have been made to apply climate forecast information to practical problems of reducing the impact of such extreme climate events.

• The importance of interaction between the scientists who generate the climate forecasts and the users of this information has been recognized for a long time, but few concerted efforts have been made in this direction.

• Although in some countries of the region efforts have been made to understand and mitigate the impact of extreme climate events, the lessons learned have seldom been documented and shared with other countries of the region.

• Facilitating mechanisms are required at the regional level to share the lessons learned and capitalize upon the experiences of the past in dealing with the disasters related to extreme climate events.

• A need to develop a regional capability to produce climate information guidance that matches the needs of the users of this information.

  As a follow-on to the Asian Regional Meeting on El Nino Related Crises in February 1998, ADPC in collaboration with NOAA and with support from USAID/ OFDA has started a program on understanding Extreme Climate Events (ECE) and their impacts on society and the environment in Southeast Asia. The pilot program targets Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam and prepares ground for a longer-term comprehensive regional program toward the application of climate forecasts for minimizing negative consequences and capitalizing potential benefits associated with ECEs.

  In October 1998, the Start-up Technical Strategy Session for the program was held at ADPC, Bangkok. Participants from the three target countries and international experts deliberated the issues and recommended an implementation strategy of the project. A copy of the report is attached.

  The start-up technical session inter alia recommended that the understanding of issues relating to application prospects of long-range forecast information should have a national focus. As a follow-on to the recommendations of the technical session, national scoping workshops were organized in all the three target countries. The participants of the national scoping workshops were drawn from physical climate prediction agencies and climate forecast information user organizations.

  The national scoping workshops came up with an implementation plan to undertake the documentation of past extreme climate events, their effects on local weather variables across different parts of the country, and their impacts.

  The status of implementation of the project in the three target countries is given below:

  INDONESIA

  As part of the project implementation process, the Start-up Workshop was held in 11-12 February 1999. As a follow-up of the recommendations of the Workshop, a quick assessment study was undertaken on the status of ENSO climate forecast application in Indonesia. The assessment was carried out by experts drawn from the Directorate for Natural Resources Inventory of the Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (TISDA-BPPT), the Directorate of Crop Protection of the Ministry of Agriculture, the State Ministry of Public Works, and the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BPS). The National Development Planning Agency (BAPPENAS), in collaboration with the Asian Development Bank, also made a detailed analysis of the Causes, Extent, Impact and Costs of 1997/98 Fires and Drought in Indonesia. Based on these inputs, a report on the status of climate forecast application prospects in Indonesia was prepared.

  The National Consultation Workshop will be held on 11-12 October 2000 in Jakarta under the overall coordination of BPPT. The Workshop will deliberate on the findings of the research study with the following objectives:

• To assess opportunities and constraints for the translation of global ENSO parameters into local weather variables in Indonesia.

• To present potential application of ENSO forecast information to manage future ENSO.

• To evolve an organizational framework for institutionalizing the climate forecast and application system in Indonesia.

  PHILIPPINES

  In the Philippines, the project is being implemented under the leadership of the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) of the Department of Defense. A National Scoping Workshop was held on 31 January 2000. As a follow-on of the recommendations of the workshop, the documentation and analysis of the impacts of extreme climate events is being undertaken by sectoral organizations. The details are :

  PAGASA    -  Physical climate prediction
  NDCC    -   Disaster events
  Department of Agriculture    -  Agriculture and food security
  National Water Resources Board    -    Water resources
  Department of Health    -  Public health
  Department of Environment and    -  Forest fires and the environment Natural Resources

  The documentation process is under completion. A National Consultation Workshop is planned in October 2000 to consider the research report and chalk out future strategy for institutionalizing climate forecast and application system in the Philippines.

  VIETNAM

  In Vietnam, the project is being implemented under the leadership of the Disaster Management Centre of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. As a follow-up of the recommendations of the National Scoping Workshop, experts drawn from the physical climate prediction branch of the Hydro-Meteorological Service, the Agrometeorological Research Centre, the Irrigation Department, and the Disaster Management Centre of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development undertook documentation and analysis of the impacts relating to extreme climate events.

  The quick assessment research report was placed before a National Consultation Workshop for chalking out future strategy for institutionalizing climate forecast generation and application system. The workshop recommended the prospects of using ENSO forecast information for managing the following discernible ENSO impacts in Vietnam:

• Application prospects of temperature variations for managing winter-spring crop production in North Vietnam.

• The behavior of typhoon incidences in terms of shifts in time and space in Central Vietnam could be used for managing typhoon-related disasters.

• The behavior of rainfall and stream flow parameters could be used for evolving water resource management practices and contingency crop planning particularly in Central Vietnam.

• Destructive typhoon incidences in Southern part of Vietnam could be used for devising early warning system for managing typhoons.

  The National Consultation workshop decided to establish a climate forecast producer and user network to ensure a continuous dialogue to address the issues relating to climate variability regardless of the occurrence of extreme climate events such as El Nino and La Nina.

  As a follow-on of these recommendations, it has been decided that the institutional mechanism will be put in place to use a long-range forecast information and share experiences of using that information regularly, immediately after the receipt of wet season and dry season forecasts. The first workshop of climate forecast producer and user institutions will be held in November 2000. The consultation process between climate forecast producers and users will be taken down to provincial level.

  Given this background, the peer-review meeting is intended to:

  1. Review and validate the methodologies adopted by the ECE program for documentation and analysis of the impacts of past extreme climate events on different sectors in Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

  The participating countries, while expressing their appreciation for the project outcome, desired to undertake pilot testing activities to demonstrate the benefits of utilizing long-range climate forecast information for resource management. Before undertaking pilot testing activities, it is considered necessary to share the findings of the research efforts and to validate the methodologies adopted for using ENSO parameters for climate prediction and resource management. A methodology document that will describe the rationale, the process and outcomes will be discussed. The participants are expected to critically review the methodology and give their recommendations for its adoption and application.

  2. Identify specific follow-up pilot activities in the three target countries.

  While ENSO is one of the major contributing factors of climate variability, climate variability itself is a continuous process. Climate variability, even in so-called normal times, impacts society and the environment significantly. The possible mechanisms which impact climate controls like monsoon systems, cyclones and other linear systems like easterly waves, etc. are linked to sea surface temperature (eastern equatorial Pacific) and Southern Oscillation Index variations. Based on the prediction of these variables, it is possible to have enough lead time to make use of a long-range forecast information to pre-assess the impacts and undertake advance plans to manage climate variability related impacts. Pilot testing of long-range forecast information in selected locations is planned to deepen the understanding of the impacts of climate variability at the micro level and assess the benefits of utilizing forecast information for resource management decisions.

  3. Review the lessons learned during the implementation of the ECE Program, and identify opportunities for replication in the Asian region.

  The countries, which did not participate in the pilot phase of the project, are also subjected to climate variability associated impacts. The methodologies followed for utilizing long-range forecast information for managing climate variability during the pilot phase could be replicated in other countries also. Since the climate of most countries of Southeast Asia and South Asia are controlled by the tropical monsoon system, there are potential opportunities to replicate the methodology to cover countries like Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar (Indochina monsoon system) and India, Bangladesh and part of Sri Lanka (Indian monsoon system).