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ECE
Phase I Background Note | Project Status Brief | Agenda | List of Participants | Opening Ceremony | Report
Methodology of the ECE Program Experiences of managing recent ENSO events in Southeast Asia show that direct application of long-lead forecast information based on global ENSO parameters poses serious difficulties for local decision-making purposes. The scientific community tends to focus on regional impacts, while it is the specific local effects which are much less predictable from one ENSO to another. To understand local effects of ECEs on society and the environment, it was decided to document the history of past events over 30-40 years, and the associated institutional responses and policy frameworks in the target countries of Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. The retrospective assessment of past ECEs was intended to serve as a tool to forecast local impacts based on historical trends. The ECE Program adopted strategies, approaches and methodologies to document and analyze past events. During the implementation, these practices underwent changes that were dictated by the level of research efforts, the availability of data and the level of expertise to collect and analyze data in each of the three countries. A draft Methodology Document was presented to the ECE Program Peer-review Meeting with a request that participants review it in order to validate the methodologies adopted by the ECE Program. Presentation Highlights Kamal Kishore (ADPC) led the discussion by stating that the participating countries desired to undertake demonstration projects during the pilot phase of the ECE Program, based on their understanding of extreme climate events. There was almost no precedent for documenting ECE impacts, nor of using them as a regional forecast tool. The rationale for translating ENSO parameters into local weather variables is that:
With many ENSO definitions available, the documentation process adopted a flexible approach to selecting suitable definitions for assessing ENSO impacts, considering the specificities of climate regimes in different geographical zones, seasons and sectors in each country. Given time and resource constraints, the selection of parameters and indices, relating to local weather features, bio-physical characteristics and socio-economic variables, was restricted to a few critical ones based on criteria evolved in consultation with participating country partners. In the project pilot phase, the agriculture and water resources sectors were selected for detailed study, with a limited focus on public health. In terms of areas, those with high intra-annual climate variability in normal years, and those perceived to be ENSO-sensitive, were examined through a combination of direct (deductive) and indirect (inductive) impact assessment methods, which varied by country. The documentation of ECEs was undertaken by the partner institutions through a participatory process, with ADPC acting as a facilitator, which has helped to build national institutional networks of climate forecast information providers and users. An analytical methodology has been developed to establish linkages among the following inter-connected components of an end-to-end climate information system.
Each sequential step is mediated by dynamic non-linear interactions which inter-play to add complexities. However, there are discernible patterns in the midst of the complexities. The documentation methodologies endeavored to identify these patterns to understand ENSO tele-connection and its impact at the local level. Efforts were made to survey analytical methodologies already available in other parts of the world and adopt them with suitable modifications, considering the local features of each target country. A significant preliminary outcome of this approach was the identification of ENSO sensitive zones in Vietnam, which led to a reclassification of climatic zones from the traditional nine agro-ecological zones, to four regions where the application of ENSO climate forecast information was feasible. Discussion Points Comparisons of methods used for dealing with extreme climate events are difficult because different methods are used across countries. The intended use of the Methodology Document was not for comparison, however, but for validation of the methodologies used, which will enable countries to pursue relevant elements and to understand how ENSO affects the countries in specific sectors and areas through a specific method. There are several methods that have been highlighted. The time-scaling of different methods needs to be made explicit. For example, how many months are reviewed, which seasons have been considered, and which decades were reviewed? The time-scale is critical to the evaluation of particular methods. Historical rainfall data is also essential to make it possible to see how the seasons change and to review the effects of extreme climate events over time. Because agencies and researchers have formatted types of data differently, it becomes difficult to collect data and store it in a database that will yield comparative results. Difficulties encountered with data inadequacies, whether in terms of quality or time periods, was repeatedly emphasized as a serious constraint for ENSO application researchers to draw meaningful conclusions. Climate impact assessment researchers could overcome these constraints by making limitations explicit while drawing conclusions from interpretation of available data. Some participants held the view that there is a need to standardize the definition of ENSO events to facilitate understanding of ENSO forecast information by various users. The consensus was that a universally accepted definition might not be available in the near future. While standard definitions of ENSO events are useful, a search for a precise definition may not be necessary at this stage. Hence, there is a need to encourage climate forecast and application researchers to adopt appropriate definitions, keeping in mind local conditions such as seasonal and regional peculiarities in each country. As local impacts vary from event to event, no effort should be made to link ENSO indices with local impacts in deterministic terms. The practical way to present ENSO tele-connections attributions could be in terms of shifts of statistical probabilities of a set of meteorological events during the course of seasons and their likely socio-economic impacts in probabilistic terms. As policy-makers and end-users do not understand probabilistic concepts, an appropriate communication package needs to be developed with explanations of all uncertainties involved in the climate forecast information. These communication products could be useful to "educate the educators", be they the media, politicians or policy-makers, who in turn, could be requested to carry them forward to the general public. Using the term "extreme climate events" creates misapprehension in the minds of decision-makers. In some situations, it leads to a "crisis mentality" that produces quick, and often inappropriate, responses. A view was also expressed that using the term "ECE" attracts the attention of policy-makers to lend support to intervention measures. Experts should provide information based on science to enable policy-makers to avoid inappropriate responses. ENSO needs to be separated from other climate-related problems. The long-term goal of these kinds of projects is to have governments believe that it is so important that it becomes a part of their business because it affects the society. Awareness-raising is needed, but so is action by governments. Peter King (ADB) wondered why rice was the crop selected for a detailed study when the impact of weather events was severe on upland subsidiary crops that support the most vulnerable groups. Romeo S. Recide, Department of Agriculture, Philippines, explained that the rationale for choosing rice was due to its socio-economic significance in ensuring food security in the participating countries, as well as the availability of long-term time series data for assessing ECE impact on agriculture. In addition, there have been extensive studies conducted on rice production and data are available on this crop. The Methodology Document does not include information about how climate works, even though there is a vast amount of knowledge. The purpose of the document is not to focus on weather science; however, some of the conclusions drawn in it should be better based on science. The impacts of extreme climate events can be difficult to evaluate since they occur within the context of political, cultural, economic and social problems that may exacerbate the effects of the climate event. It is important to consider these contexts so that resources can be optimized. The socio-economic setting and decision-making structures determine how and when climate forecasts will be used. Other factors that intensify the effects of the climate event also need to be accounted for, such as deforestation, soil erosion and settlement patterns. Recommendations During the discussions about the draft Methodology Document and ways to share methods for dealing with extreme climate events, the workshop participants recommended the following:
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