Report

Experiences and Opportunities from Regional and International Initiatives

A number of initiatives have been undertaken in various parts of the world in applying climate forecast information for decision-making purposes. This session was devoted to sharing experiences of applying climate forecast information and exploring possibilities for institutional networking to establish a mechanism that ensures continuous interaction for exchange of data, research findings and experiences

Presentation Highlights

Michael Glantz raised a number of challenges and opportunities in "retailing" climate forecast information to local users.

Challenges Forecast reliability Lack of common definitions of El Nino and La Nina affect identification of onset In downscaling forecasts to local users, we need to talk of probabilities; the public has difficulty with probabilities expressed statistically ECE forecasts may require forecasting impacts that are not yet visible to decision-makers Lack of translators to convert science into common language Poor perception of forecasts and forecasters with regard to forecast value Lack of realistic error bars associated with a forecast Provided information is appropriate for local user needs Insufficient numbers of trained personnel

Opportunities Since the 1997-98 El Nino and the following La Nina, they are not treated in the same way Educate and train about climate impacts and not just climate science, now that we have their attention Educate the media at various levels of interest: intermittent and heavy science information Teach government and policy-makers about the usefulness of climate information in decision-making

Cheryl Anderson presented the experiences of the Pacific ENSO Applications Center (PEAC) in applying climate forecast information to minimize negative consequences in the Pacific Islands. In August 1994, PEAC was established as a pilot project to provide ENSO forecasts and information products to the US-affiliated Pacific Islands, in part because the spatial resolution of large-scale models widely used by researchers in the USA did not meet people's needs. PEAC directed its research efforts at the development of canonical correlation analysis (CCA) models to forecast rainfall on specific islands using historical rainfall data. PEAC published simple guides that describe rainfall and tropical cyclone activities expected under normal, El Nino and La Nina conditions. Throughout 1994 and 1995, a series of workshops, focus group meetings and presentations at regional meetings and to various organizations and agencies, and local briefings on ENSO, were conducted. From these activities, PEAC identified the concerns of participants on potential impacts of El Niœo and La Niœa events and elicited information about the specific kinds of ENSO forecast information needed.

PEAC's pre-1997 preparatory efforts used ENSO forecast information during 1997-98 to downscale the forecast for local use as well as to educate decision-makers and end-users to prepare for and undertake proactive measures. The efforts were useful in assessing ENSO impacts on Pacific islands during 1997-98 as well as enabling local institutions to undertake mitigation measures. Generalized forecasts of ENSO events are not sufficient for decision-makers outside meteorological services. Coupled models used to forecast ENSO events must be supplemented by a clear understanding of how those events affect rainfall and storm patterns. The experience of PEAC has proven that the "end-to-end" concept is not only feasible, but can actually be used to reduce the suffering and cost of extreme climate events associated with the ENSO cycle.

Reid Basher presented the efforts of International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) in operationalizing end-to-end climate research and application programs in various parts of the world. The elements of the IRI include:

Applications System

• Climate monitoring and information dissemination to distribute IRI forecast products and support their use worldwide; provide a link with national meteorological and hydrological services responsible for operational forecasting in affected regions; and maintain an effective mechanism for user feedback on the quality and usefulness of IRI products.
• Targeted applications research and demonstration projects to provide insights into the regional consequences of seasonal-to-inter-annual climate variability, the vulnerability of communities and economic sectors, and the value of and barriers to the use of new forecasting information to support decision-making.
• Training to expand the international cadre of individuals skilled in the use and application of emerging forecasting techniques and scientific insights.

Predictions System

• State-of-the-art experimental prediction which provides for the production of global-scale forecasts of critical parameters such as temperature and precipitation, and the use of emerging "downscaling" techniques to transform those global forecasts into regional predictions useful for agriculture, water resources management and other practical applications.

In implementing its programs, IRI is actively engaged with networks of project-oriented partners in climate modelling, research and applications around the world.

Michael Glantz shared a vision of the establishment of a Climate Affairs Program. He mentioned that as climate anomalies are becoming more frequent, costly and deadly, and global warming is also looming in the 21st century, climate issues have become important to individuals and society. A comprehensive Climate Affairs Program would educate the public about the value of knowing how climate directly and indirectly affects human activities in all sectors of society. The program would encourage education and training in climate affairs. The components of the program could include climate ethics (intergenerational equity, environmental justice, discounting the future, "polluter pays" principle, precautionary principle), climate policy and law (domestic and international issues relating to air pollution, acid rain, ozone depletion and global warming) and climate impacts (on ecosystems and society, human impacts on climate, methods of assessment) and climate science.

Eileen Shea presented a futuristic view of establishing a Pacific Climate Information System with a strategy of enabling science to support decision-making processes through continuous interaction and information flow between users and providers of scientific information. Such a new climate information partnership would combine the unique assets and special expertise of a number of national, regional and international institutions and programs to support practical decision-making in the context of climate variability and change. The objectives are to:

• Enhance and sustain observations and monitoring of climate conditions and consequences;
• Provide access to emerging forecasting capabilities;
• Transform global-scale predictions into forecasts tailored to meet regional needs;
• Preserve free and open access to climate data and products;
• Conduct research to improve understanding of regional impacts and explore future opportunities; and
• Support regional capacity-building through training, education and public outreach.

Participants were requested to apply for a training institute on climate variability and change to be held in Honolulu in February 2001 at the East-West Center.

Discussion Points

While climate forecasts cover a larger area spanning more than thousands of kilometers in probabilistic terms, users often operate within considerably smaller areas such as farm lands and river watersheds. Hence, there is a huge challenge for forecast and application researchers to retail climate forecast information for end-user benefits.

Most research has been driven from the climate and agro-ecological communities, and has tended to involve a top-down approach, where uses are sought for existing forecast information, and less commonly by a bottom-up approach where a decision situation is examined to identify niches and needs for climate forecasts.

Most current forecast products lack the spatial, temporal and elemental specificity that users seek for their specific decision-making needs. It is important that our approach shifts towards the idea of understanding and managing climate variability, and away from simply applying a forecast product.

The Climate Affairs Program concept needs to be promoted as an integration between climate and society interactions. The program should be developed with a multi-disciplinary curriculum to bring knowledge from different fields together in addressing climate issues.

To educate the media and users, specific groups must be identified and messages tailored to them, e.g., the textile industry. With the media, it should be understood that not every writer is a science writer, thus interdisciplinary teams are necessary to convey messages. Many believe that there are more significant gains to be made by communicating with the public than through incremental advances in scientific understanding. We should be aware that in many developing societies, the media only reach a limited audience.

Recommendations

From the ideas generated in the presentations and throughout the discussions, the participants suggested a wide range of recommendations. These have been separated into the main discussion themes:

Training

• Take advantage of the current opportunity to educate and train about climate impacts and not just climate science, now that we have the attention of users and government on the usefulness of climate information for decision-making.
• Develop a Climate Affairs Program to "educate the educators" in different countries. It could be promoted not only through academic institutions but also regional institutions devoted to ECE forecasting application activities.
• Encourage meeting participants to apply for the Climate Training Institute, and to pass on the information to their colleagues at home.
• Support the development of a regional training center.

Media Interaction

• Educate the media, keeping in mind various and intermittent levels of interest with heavy science information. Messages must be tailored to identified specific users (e.g., the textile industry). Some sort of interface is needed to enable scientists to communicate with the media and the public.

User and Science Relationships

• Develop long-term relationships with user communities. This is essential to their receptiveness to climate information and ENSO forecasts.

Research and Down-Scaling Models

• Increase and support research on down-scaling, going from global models to regional ones.
• The ECE group should participate and play a key role in research activities should the Monsoon Prediction Center, currently being proposed to the US National Science Foundation, be funded.
• The ASEAN meteorological services should get together to develop forecasts that belong to everyone; each country could run the model and all would develop this capability.

Networking and Information Sharing

• Establish an international forum. The ECE Program is a step in this direction by bringing together meteorologists and users, and moving beyond end-to-end relationship models.
• An institutional network concerned with various aspects of climate forecast production and application could be established to share experiences on a continuous basis.
• A comprehensive newsletter on climate outlook and impact scenarios could be produced by regional centers devoted to ECEs.
• Consult the resources and documented experiences on dealing with ENSO from other regions. The Pacific ENSO Applications Center is developing a manual on 1997-98 El Niœo management experiences for information sharing.

Partnerships

• Create interest and demand among the private sector for climate forecasts and application of climate information.
• GCOS is looking for regional partners to run workshops on installing, maintaining and using the information from climate observing systems.

Extreme Climate Events Program

• Hold a workshop to maintain the ECE groupØs commitment to working together, to document opportunities, and to map funding sources for national and international initiatives.