Report

Using ENSO Forecasts for Anticipating Impacts on Agriculture

Extant climate impact assessment methodologies in the agricultural sector rely on indicators like rainfall distribution, crop monitoring and water level positions in reservoirs, which gives little lead-time before harvest to make resource management and disaster preparedness intervention strategies. ENSO forecasts now available are able to provide the possible climate anomalies with considerable lead-time to enable sector agencies to undertake potential impact assessments and prepare contingency and risk management plans. This session was intended to share the methodologies adopted by the agricultural sector agencies in the target countries to use long-range climate forecast information for decision-making purposes.

Presentation Highlights

Sutarto Alimoeso of Indonesia noted that at present no acceptable methodologies are available to interpret long-range forecasts for decision-making purposes. The ECE pilot study enabled the development of a methodology to delineate ENSO-sensitive zones at provincial level. There is a need to take this methodology further to district and sub-district levels for operationalizing climate forecast and application systems in the agricultural sector. Institutionally, there is no specific unit in the Ministry of Agriculture that deals with climate. In addition, there are no operational climate policies. Thus, there is also a need to have a unit in the Ministry of Agriculture to interpret long-range forecasts for decision-making purposes.

Collaborative climate application research also needs to be evolved to address all possible knowledge gaps in applying climate forecast information. Weather and climate terms of meteorological science are not commonly understood by many agriculture sector personnel. Although ENSO, as a term, is gaining currency, its meaning is unclear. In general, there is a low level of climate expertise at central and local government levels. Future plans include:

• Improving institutional capacity to handle all aspects of agroclimatology.
• Enhancing collaborative climate information applications research at national and international levels.
• Promote the understanding of officers and farmers on climate.
• Repairing and replacing recording equipment in agrometeorological stations in the weather observation network.

Romeo Recide, of the Philippines Department of Agriculture, mentioned that, on receipt of advisories from PAGASA, they carry out potential impact assessments based on agriculture production data. The department prepares region-wise potential impact assessment scenarios and shares these with agriculture research institutions and other agencies such as water resources, irrigation and food security agencies. On receipt of inputs from these organizations on the potential impact assessment scenarios, modifications are made and the final processed information is passed on to regional agricultural departments.

The ECE research study enabled the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics to assess the impact of ENSO on crop production by utilizing past data and cross-referencing it with ENSO indices. This methodology would be further refined to evolve potential impact assessments at the provincial and local levels in respect of various seasons. The second and third-order impacts of ENSO could also be studied to have an integrated assessment of ENSO's impact on the primary sector and its cascading effect on other sectors and the national economy.

In the Philippines, a study was conducted to attribute area-specific impacts to ECE indicators, in an effort to develop planning tools. Results reported by Romeo Recide indicated that declines in gross value added (GVA) and production volume of four principal crops (rice, corn, sugarcane and coconut) coincide with El Nino years, while increases are associated with La Nina years due to favorable rainfall conditions. The sharpest falls in GVA and production volume in the agricultural sector were in 1982-83 and 1997-98, the years with the strongest El Ninos of the century. It was also found that livestock, poultry and fisheries sub-sectors are not sensitive to ECEs. Improved aquaculture production in recent years has compensated for any loss during warm episodes. Third-order impacts include shortfalls in projected annual economic growth, increased burdens on urban resources as displaced agricultural workers migrate to cities, and increased dependence of agricultural workers on government assistance.

Nguyen Van Viet reported that by adopting a correlation coefficient methodology between ENSO indices and crop production indices, it was possible to establish some linkages. However, this methodology needs to be refined taking into account all variations from global circulation to local climate controls and in turn local weather variables.

There is variation and climate disturbance in ENSO years (either El Nino or La Nina), with most variation in temperature, rainfall, sunshine duration and typhoons. Variation also occurs across different ecological regions. For example, in La Niœa years, there are more typhoons and floods than normal in the central coastal region. There is evident impact of ENSO on agricultural production on crop yield, gross and cultivated area. MEI and SOI will be used in early agrometeorological monitoring and crop yield forecasting, especially for rice. This will be important for ensuring food security in Vietnam. The study recommends that:

• Research be conducted on ECEs and measures to cope with them in the nine agro-ecological regions of Vietnam.
• Establishment of a communications network from central to provincial and district levels and farmers to enhance the capacity of the agro-meteorological monitoring system to match climate information with end users' needs.

Discussion Points

Lessons can be learned from local traditional knowledge and practices in utilizing climate forecast information and these need to be explored for adoption. For example, in Vietnam, disasters increased and crop production also increased at the same time, because people learned to change the crop calendar based on local knowledge and experience. A significant yield gap exists between research stations and farmersØ fields. Understanding of the nature of the farming systems, market demands and management options available to different types of farmers needs to be improved.

Communicating probabilities is problematic because there are different levels of response to uncertainty, and the farmer may only want to know, "Do I have enough water to grow this crop?" Extension systems can provide information directly to farmers because the infrastructure already exists, but this requires that the scientific community provide information with sufficient lead-time for response.

To get the appropriate information, it is important to tap into existing regional, national and local networks, within which it is essential to find appropriate means of communicating information. The potential impact on methodologies needs to be incorporated into the communication packages of the agricultural extension systems in each country through an appropriate training program. Geographic information systems (GIS) are one tool that provides a visual depiction of the problem and conveys meaning for policy-makers. GIS can be used to demonstrate impacts for specific geographic locations.

Recommendations

To address issues identified during discussions on providing lead-time to get forecast information to user communities in the most useable format, participants made the following recommendations:

• Conduct impact assessments and evaluate the lead-time requirements of the various user groups, and provide users with the required information in an appropriate actionable format, since the lead-time requirement varies from user to user.
• Establish pilot demonstration projects in ENSO-sensitive zones where the ENSO signal is strong. The experiences of START in implementing climate prediction and agriculture (CLIMAG) could be utilized for establishing pilot demonstration projects in the target countries.
• Analyze key points in the agricultural planning cycle where there are opportunities to make use of seasonal forecast information to modify management of the agricultural sector at a national level through applied research efforts.
• Conduct a research study to capture varying impact patterns of extreme climate events on crop production. These vary from event to event due to the complex interplay of weather and non-weather factors. Use the results of the study for managing ENSO-related disturbances in the crop production cycle.
• Convey local traditional knowledge and practices to the meteorological community, to enable them to produce usable forecasts.
• Use GIS methods to build databases that show the specifics of an area, and that take into account local knowledge.