E-mail: pclbtw@hn.vnn.vn
GEOGRAPHICAL FOCUS: Indonesia,
the Philippines and Vietnam
PROJECT PERIOD: September
1998 - December 1999, extended to December 2000
FUNDING AGENCY: USAID/
OFDA
BACKGROUND:
The Program on Extreme Climate
Events (ECE) was started as a follow on to the Asian Regional Meeting
on El Niœo Related Crises, hosted by ADPC in collaboration with the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Bangkok
from 2 to 6 February 1998. Supported by OFDA, this was a very successful
meeting that brought together more than 120 participants from the
region and identified key action areas towards building capacities
in the Asian region in the area of climate forecasting applications
for disaster reduction. The ECE Program focuses on some of these key
action areas.
PROGRAM OVERVIEW:
The key objectives of this project
are:
1) to document the time series
forecasts, impacts, institutional responses and policy frameworks
related to extreme climate events (such as El Niœo, La Niœa, Indian
Ocean SST patterns) over the past 10 to 15 years in some of the most
affected countries of the Asian region in order to improve the understanding
of the impacts of such events particularly as related to disasters
in the Asian region;
2) to draw upon the climate forecasting
research community ° regional meteorological agencies, ASMC, NOAA,
WMO, IRI, etc. ° to identify event indicators and develop a predictive
capability; and
3) to provide an interface between
the scientific and research community generating information on extreme
climate events and the users of this information, such as national
governments, NGOs, national and regional press bureaus, etc.
The above objectives will be
achieved through the following program components:
Component I: Documentation
and Analysis of Impacts of and Responses to Past Extreme Climate Events
The study focuses on the direct
impacts of disasters resulting from extreme climate events in four
main sectors: agriculture and food security; population welfare and
public health; natural resources and environment; and industry and
economy. This component of the project will endeavor to build a network
of institutional contacts to collect useful, accurate information
on past extreme climate events. The entire process will help create
an information network that may also be activated to disseminate accurate
preparedness, response and recovery information in the next extreme
climate event. The information collected on past extreme climate events
is analyzed with a view to derive "lessons learned" from each study
country's experiences. ADPC will disseminate and facilitate information
exchange on lessons learned. Based on these lessons learned, a tentative
plan will be drawn to deal with future extreme climate events.
Component II: User Workshops
As an interface role between
the scientific and research community generating information on El
Nino and the users of this information, ADPC in collaboration with
NOAA, plans to organize regional user workshops in tandem with regional
climate outlook fora (such as the fora being organized by the ASEAN
Meteorological Center and IRI). These workshops will bring together
users of the climate information from the region such as national
and regional policy makers, climate variability related crises management
groups etc. This activity will bring usersØ perspective to the ongoing
initiatives on generating climate forecast outlooks. Such user inputs
will help in generating easily understandable and directly usable
climate information for users from various sectors.
Component III: Media Coordination
This component is focused on
public awareness generation campaign to inform the general public
of the impact of extreme climate events and the strategies required
to avert the negative impacts of such events. Based on the information
resources accumulated and the media information needs identified,
a series of articles and programs to inform the public of various
facets of disasters resulting from extreme climate events will be
produced
PROGRESS UPDATE
The ECE Program was launched
with a Start-up Strategy Session (Annex 1) held at ADPC from 19-20
October 1998. The session was attended by delegates from the programØs
three pilot target countries, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam,
representatives from the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center (ASMC),
LA RED (a Latin American network of NGOs, individuals and organizations
working in disaster prevention), ADPC, USAID, NOAA and the U.S. Department
of State. The Start-up Strategy Session led to a broad implementation
strategy for the program, which identified key issues that the program
should address, appropriate institutional contacts (in different sectors)
for information gathering and dissemination and appropriate time frame
for various activities. Institutional partners for the documentation
process in the three study countries were also identified.
Component I:
The start-up strategy session
held at ADPC in October 1998 identified the need for holding a national
start-up workshop in each of the three target countries. These workshops
were aimed at defining the scope of the program, identifying relevant
institutional contacts and coming up with an implementation plan in
each country. These workshops were held at different times in each
of the three countries.
The documentation of time series
forecasts, impacts, institutional responses and policy frameworks
related to extreme climate events was undertaken to cover the past
30 to 40 years (depending on the availability of data in various sectors)
instead of the 10 to 15 years previously envisaged in the initial
program design. The expanded database would then be adequate to draw
significant conclusions regarding the impact of climate variability.
Documentation and analysis of impacts of and responses to past extreme
climate events is being conducted in detail, in collaboration with
partner organization(s), in each of the three target countries.
The following sections
describe the progress in the implementation of Component I in each
of the three countries.
Indonesia
The national start-up workshop
(Annex 2) was conducted on 11-12 February 1999. This workshop was
attended by 25 participants from various departments and agencies
of the Government of Indonesia, including the National Disaster Management
Coordination Board (BAKORNAS PB), the Bureau of Meteorology, the Ministry
of Agriculture, Ministry of Health, Agency for Assessment and Application
of Technology (BPPT), Bureau of Food Logistics (BULOG), National Aeronautic
and Space Agency (LAPAN) and the Ministry of Forestry and Estate Crops.
These departments represent a wide cross section of current (and potential)
users of climate information as well as producers of climate information.
This was probably the first time that producers and a wide range of
existing (and potential) users of climate information were brought
together to one forum. The participants of this workshop represent
a network that can be activated in the next extreme climate event
and be used for disseminating climate forecast information and its
specific application. The workshop, which was facilitated by ADPC,
came up with an implementation plan for the documentation and analysis
of past extreme climate events and their impacts. Following the workshop,
a technical working group comprising of a number of departments and
agencies was constituted under the leadership of BAKORNAS PB. Resource
persons from different departments and agencies have been identified
for all the critical sectors.
As a follow-up of the recommendations
of the workshop, a quick assessment study was undertaken on the status
of ENSO climate forecast application in Indonesia. The assessment
was carried out by experts drawn from the Directorate for Natural
Resources Inventory of the Agency for the Assessment and Application
of Technology (TISDA-BPPT), the Directorate of Crop Protection of
the Ministry of Agriculture, the State Ministry of Public Works, and
the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BPS). The National Development
Planning Agency (BAPPENAS), in collaboration with the Asian Development
Bank, also made a detailed analysis of the Causes, Extent, Impact
and Costs of the 1997/98 Fires and Drought in Indonesia. Based on
these inputs, a report on the status of climate forecast application
prospects in Indonesia was prepared.
The National Consultation Workshop
will be held on 11-12 October 2000 in Jakarta under the overall coordination
of BPPT. The workshop will deliberate on the findings of the research
study with the following objectives:
1) To assess opportunities and
constraints for the translation of global ENSO parameters into local
weather variables in Indonesia.
2) To present potential application
of ENSO forecast information to manage future ENSO.
3) To evolve an organizational
framework for institutionalizing the climate forecast and application
system in Indonesia.
Under the ECE program, a detailed
study analyzing the impacts of 1997-98 El Nino in Indonesia was completed
in June 2000. The study looks at how the various institutions that
were responsible for managing the impacts responded to seasonal climate
forecasts that were issued well in advance. The study identifies the
research and policy needs of the country to be better prepared for
future extreme climate events. This study will be a part of an international
initiative led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
in cooperation with UNEP to study the impacts of El Nino 1997-98 on
a number of countries. This study, complemented with the analysis
of other extreme climate events that have affected Indonesia over
the past 30-40 years, will be presented in a National Consultation
Seminar in Jakarta later this year.
The project has established close
linkages with the Indonesian Climate Variability Program of the Agency
for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT) in Indonesia.
The project has also established close working relationships with
national and international initiatives on forest fire issues in Indonesia.
The program participated in an inter-agency mission led by United
Nations Center for Human Settlements (Habitat) to study the Indonesian
forest and land fires and identify strategies for risk reduction.
The institutional contacts established through this initiative will
help in exploring opportunities for application of seasonal to inter-annual
climate forecasts for forest fire risk reduction.
Philippines
Although the Philippines was
represented in the Start-up Strategy Session, the follow-up response
from the country was initially slow. The national start-up workshop
(Annex 3) was held in the Philippines last 31 January 2000. This extremely
successful workshop brought together more than 50 participants from
various departments and agencies, which included the Department of
Agriculture, the National Water Resources Board, the Department of
Health, the National Economic Development Authority, the National
Disaster Coordinating Council/ Office of Civil Defense (NDCC/ OCD),
and the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA), along with several NGOs.
As a follow-on of the recommendations
of the workshop, the documentation and analysis of the impacts of
extreme climate events is being undertaken by sectoral organizations.
The details are :
PAGASA - Physical climate prediction
NDCC - Disaster events
Department of Agriculture - Agriculture and food security
National Water Resources Board - Water resources
Department of Health - Public health
Department of Environment and - Forest fires and the environment Natural
Resources
The documentation process is
under completion. A National Consultation Workshop is planned in October
2000 to consider the research report and chalk out future strategy
for institutionalizing climate forecast and application system in
the Philippines.
Vietnam
The national start-up workshop
(Annex 4) was conducted on 29-30 April 1999. This workshop brought
together 34 participants, including senior level officials from the
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the Hydro-Meteorological
Service, the Department of Dyke Management, Flood & Storm Control,
Disaster Management Unit (DMU), Ministry of Planning and Investment,
Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment, Ministry of Finance,
Ministry of Health, and the Institute of Geology. Facilitated by ADPC,
the workshop finalized an implementation plan for the program. Following
the workshop, a working group was constituted under the leadership
of the Disaster Management Center (DMC).
As a follow-up of the recommendations
of the National Scoping Workshop, experts drawn from the physical
climate prediction branch of the Hydro-Meteorological Service, the
Agrometeorological Research Centre, the Irrigation Department, and
the Disaster Management Centre of the Ministry of Agriculture and
Rural Development undertook documentation and analysis of the impacts
relating to extreme climate events.
The quick assessment research
report (Annex 5) was placed before a National Consultation Workshop
for chalking out future strategy for institutionalizing climate forecast
generation and application system. The workshop recommended the prospects
of using ENSO forecast information for managing the following discernible
ENSO impacts in Vietnam:
1) Application prospects of temperature
variations for managing winter-spring crop production in North Vietnam.
2) The behavior of typhoon incidences
in terms of shifts in time and space in Central Vietnam could be used
for managing typhoon-related disasters.
3) The behavior of rainfall and
stream flow parameters could be used for evolving water resource management
practices and contingency crop planning particularly in Central Vietnam.
4) Destructive typhoon incidences
in Southern part of Vietnam could be used for devising early warning
system for managing typhoons.
The National Consultation Workshop
decided to establish a climate forecast producer and user network
to ensure a continuous dialogue to address the issues relating to
climate variability regardless of the occurrence of extreme climate
events such as El Nino and La Nina.
As a follow-on of these recommendations,
it has been decided that the institutional mechanism will be put in
place to use a long-range forecast information and share experiences
of using that information regularly, immediately after the receipt
of wet season and dry season forecasts. The first workshop of climate
forecast producer and user institutions will be held in November 2000.
The consultation process between climate forecast producers and users
will be taken down to the provincial level.
Regional Activities
It is planned that all the three
studies, when concluded, will be presented at a Regional Sharing Workshop
where findings will be reviewed and lessons learned from the analysis
of the past extreme climate events will be identified. A number of
other climate forecasting application programs working at national,
regional and international levels will be invited to this workshop.
Initial contact has been made with a number of ongoing programs. The
ECE program has maintained constant communication with the ASEAN Specialized
Meteorological Center (ASMC), International Research Institute (IRI)
for Climate Prediction, WMO and NOAA.
In the Southeast Asian region,
the ECE program has kept the ASMC informed of the work being done
under the program. ASMC was represented at the start-up strategy session
of the ECE project. Over the last one and a half-years, ASMC has made
significant progress towards developing a regional climate forecasting
capability in collaboration with IRI. ADPC has been invited to these
meetings, which has helped in strengthening the linkage between the
two organizations. The development of climate forecasting capability
at the ASMC is in its initial stages. There are no specific ADPC-ASMC
collaborative activities planned at this stage yet, but it is expected
that the two organizations will explore opportunities to undertake
specific activities to bridge the gap between climate forecast producers
and users.
START-Southeast Asia based at
the Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok has established a network
to disseminate information on ongoing research on different aspects
of climate science in the Southeast Asian region. ADPC has held discussion
with START-SEA, and the two centers have agreed in principle to explore
collaborative opportunities. There is a possibility of expanding the
scope of the ECE program to Thailand.
Component II:
At the beginning of the program,
two workshops were planned at the regional level to bring together
producers and users of climate information from the region such as
the national and regional policy makers, climate variability related
crises management groups etc. These workshops were planned to be organized
in tandem with the regional climate outlook forums. However, during
the project duration, no regional climate outlook forum has been organized.
The ASMC is in the process of building its capacity to produce regional
climate outlooks. It would be more appropriate to organize a user
workshop in tandem with the first climate outlook forum organized
by ASMC.
In the meanwhile, at the national
level, the national consultation workshops conducted at the completion
of the documentation process in each country will serve the purpose
of bringing together the users and producers of climate information.
The national consultation workshop that was held in Vietnam on 15-16
May 2000 has served this purpose. An increased recognition of the
importance of such activity has led to the institutionalization of
such workshops in Vietnam. The ECE program will work towards similar
results in the Philippines and Indonesia as well.
Component III:
During the course of the implementation
of the ECE program, ADPC has identified media contacts in each of
the three countries. As the results of the documentation and analysis
start coming out in each of the three countries, a series of articles
and programs will be produced in each of these countries.
CONCLUSION
The ECE program is essentially
multi-institutional in nature and requires effective coordination
between a range of departments in each of the target country. Each
of the different departments and agencies involved have their own
routine calendar of activities and, in each of the target countries,
it has taken a lot of time to finalize the working arrangements. Therefore,
it has been difficult to adhere to the original implementation schedule.
The progress in the three target countries has been mixed, with activities
well underway in Vietnam and Indonesia but slow getting underway in
the Philippines.
Although the implementation of
the program has been slower than initially planned, the ECE program
has made significant progress in developing a comprehensive approach
for integrating national climate information provider and user networks
to reduce vulnerability to climate extremes in the three pilot countries.
The program has enhanced awareness regarding the importance of making
effective use of climate forecasts for disaster reduction in these
countries. The program has helped in understanding the specific impacts
of extreme climate events in the target countries and in identifying
tangible opportunities for the application of climate forecasts for
disaster reduction. However, it will take additional effort to test
and make operational the application opportunities identified in the
three countries.
