Indonesia Start-Up Workshop

ECE Phase I
Indonesia Start-up Workshop on Understanding Extreme Climate Events
11-12 February 1999
Bogor

A start-up workshop for the Program on Understanding Extreme Climate Events in Indonesia was held on 11-12 February 1999 at Puncak, Indonesia. The workshop, organized by BAKORNAS PB, in collaboration with the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC), was attended by 25 people from different departments and agencies dealing with the consequences of Extreme Climate Events in Indonesia.

The main objectives of this workshop were:

to finalize an implementation plan for the Program on Understanding Extreme Climate Events in Indonesia; and
to brainstorm on the different components of this implementation plan and obtain strategic guidance from the key stakeholders.

An indicative implementation plan for the program identifies:

The key issues that the program should address (what should we look at);
Appropriate institutional contacts for information gathering and dissemination (who will do what?); and Appropriate time frame for various activities (what time frame?)

The two-day workshop was mainly divided in two parts:

Presentations by some of the key agencies representing the sectors affected by the impacts of extreme climate events in Indonesia. These presentations helped in highlighting the key issues that need to be addressed by the program in each sector.
Focused group discussions to finalize the implementation plan for the program into three different groups: Group I dealing with the climate forecasting aspects; Group II dealing with the direct impacts of extreme climate events; and Group III dealing with the derived impacts of extreme climate events. The details representatives participated in group discussions were:

Group-1

BMG
BPPT
LAPAN

Group-II

Ministry of Agriculture
Ministry of Water resources
BULOG

Group-III

Public Health
Ministry Forests
RCDM (Research Center For Natural Disasters) Mada University.
BAKORNA PB

Representatives of ADPC assisted the groups in their discussions.

OUTCOMES OF THE WORKSHOP

The Group, through discussion, identified issues and evolved an action plan for implementation by participating agencies. A summary of the outcome is presented below.

1. Climate prediction

Prior to 1977, the BMG generally issued weather forecasts keeping in view meteorological parameters. From 1997 onwards, the. BMG has taken the initiative to establish a broad based National Forecasting Working Group drawing upon expertise from BPPT, LAPAN.ITB, PUSLITANAK and,PERHIMPI. The BMG evolves weather guidance products based on inputs from all members of the National Forecasting Working Group as well as external sources like IRI, BOM Australia, UK Metro Office, and ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center. These weather guidance forecast products are based on global ENSO parameters and give enough time for decision-making. However, relating it to local conditions posed operational constraints. For instance, keeping in view LaNina factor, the BMG issued wet season forecast for 1998-99, by adopting 115% of long term mean of rainfall. However, actual distribution of rainfall in some locations was turned out to be less than long-term mean figures. This factor had created difficulties for resource managers to take decisions at the local level. There was a consensus that fine-tuning of seasonal forecast products by downscaling and disaggregating ENSO impacts on Indonesian Monsoon and cross validating it with historical SST rainfall data in respect of local areas would be useful to decision-makers. The details of activities agreed to be undertaken by various agencies to achieve the objective of localizing climate forecast information is shown in the following table.

Activities

Documentation of ENSO

Documentation on ENSO impacts on regional climate features

A document on ENSO impacts on Indonesian monsoon indicating simultaneous and lagged relationships between ENSO indices and local weather variables

Documentation of seasonal forecast advisories with evaluation reports in the last 3 decades

A time series data indicating dates of onset of wet season in respect of various agro-climatic locations for last three decades

Station-wise weekly rainfall data for past 30 years

Development of SST cross-validated rainfall for local areas

Development of district/ subdistrict focused seasonal forecast based on ENSO for selected subdistricts of Java, Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi islands

Documentation of past history of ECE-related cold surge activities leading to heavy rainfall clusters/ floods/ flashfloods/ landslides

Responsibility

BPPT

LAPAN

BMG

Collaborating Agencies

LAPAN, BMG

BPPT, BMG

BPPT, LAPAN

LAPAN Agriculture

LAPAN, BPPT
Agriculture.
Water resources

LAPAN BPPT
Agriculture.
Water resources

LAPAN, BPPT
Agriculture
Public Works
Public Health

LAPAN, BPPT Agriculture
Public Works
Public Health

Time-frame

April 99

June 99

April 99

June 99

June - July 99

2. Translating Climate forecasts into Applications

The participants discussed the issues connected with potential opportunities and constraints in translating climate forecasts into applications. Summary of discussions is presented below.

Significant progress has been made in generating climate forecast information with long lead-time based on ENSO indices.

While there was consistency of climate seasonal prediction and flood occurrence in Java Island, there was no such correlation in respect of Sulawesi and other outer islands.

Human interference over periods of time rendered some areas more vulnerable to climatic variations than before. Hence, micro-climatic variations do not always follow the predicted global climatic variations/ pattern.

There is a strong indication that the flood/drought prone areas are consistent with super critical river basins.

Drought incidences tend to occur more frequently than predicted, more so actual occurrence do not always follow historical pattern.

These factors caused difficulties in utilizing long-lead ENSO forecasts for decision-making process at the local level. Hence climate information processing should be carefully related to local resource use/ management practices by treating ENSO seasonal forecast products as guideposts.

Delineation of ENSO sensitive areas based on past history of ECE, as well as incorporation of subsequent changes both positive (irrigation, better agronomic practices, non-farm economic activities etc) and negative (watershed degradation unplanned developments in natural hazards prone regions) would be a prerequisite to target management efforts based on ENSO forecasts.

All the participants agreed to undertake documentation of past ECE capturing essential features such as impacts, intervention details and evaluations etc. The details of activities agreed to be undertaken by various organizations are shown in the accompanying table:

Activity	Responsibility	Timeframe	Collaborating Agencies
A documentation of past history of ECE at national level based on readily available information	Agriculture Public Works (Water Resources) Forest & Environment Public Health	March 1999	BMG BPS BULOG Social Welfare
Documentation of past history of ECE at provincial level based on readily available information in respect of one province each in Java, Sulawesi, Sumatra, and Kalimantan islands	Agriculture Public Works (Water Resources) Forest & Environment Public Health	April 1999	BMG BPS BULOG Social Welfare Provincial offices of each collaborating agencies
Documentation of past history of ECE at district, subdistrictlevel in respect of one province each in Java, Sulawesi, Sumatra , and Kalimantan islands	Agriculture Public Works (Water Resources) Forest & Environment Public Health	June 1999	BMG BPS BULOG Social Welfare Provincial/ district subdistrict offices of each collaborating agencies
Complete documentation after filling gaps based on technical support from ADPC	Agriculture Public Works (Water Resources) Forest & Environment Public Health	15th June 1999	BMG BPS BULOG Social Welfare Provincial/ district subdistrict offices of each collaborating agencies ADPC
Draw lessons from the documentation and prepare climate forecast and application plan	BMG BPPT LAPAN Agriculture Public works(Water Resources) Forest & Environment Public Health	15th July 1999	BPS BULOG Social Welfare Provincial/district subdistrict offices of each collaborating agencies ADPC
Replicate documentation process to cover entire country	BMG BPPT LAPAN Agriculture Public works(Water Resources) Forests Environment Public Health	2 years	BPS BULOG Social Welfare Provincial/district subdistrict offices of each collaborating agencies

3. Institutional Response to ECE

The participants discussed various aspects of existing institutional arrangements to make use of newly available advance climate forecast information for decision-making process. The summary of the discussion is presented below:

The current institutional arrangements at all levels are oriented to deal with situations arising out of ECE related disaster threats. There is a need to reorient them to make use of advance climate forecast information to anticipate potential impacts, pre-assesses possible consequences and undertake pro-active measures.

The existing inter-departmental coordination mechanism among user organizations of ENSO forecast information at national/ provincial/ local administrative level is inadequate to process and use probabilistic forecasting information.

Promotion of inter departmental coordination need to be achieved through a well-structured consultative process by appreciating that ECEs are an integral feature of climate and their recurrence is certain.

ECE project implementation period could be utilized as an opportunity to institutionalize inter-departmental coordination arrangements.to make use of ENSO forecast information.

Documentation of past history of ECE through mutual consultation.process would ensure convergence of approaches to achieve an overarching objective of realizing potential benefits of ENSO climate forecast.

BAKORNAS PB will play a catalytic role in promoting inter-departmental coordination by establishing a Working Group with representation of all institutions concerned with climate variability and its consequences at national, selected provinces and districts/ subdistricts. The subdistrict level committee will associate farmer user groups to obtain information from them.

The working groups at various levels, through periodical meetings, will review progress of implementation/ documentation process as well as provide necessary guidance to the personnel involved in the documentation exercise.

The working groups at various levels will establish a periodical reporting arrangement to institutionalize information flow process.

4. Action Plan for the Program

The following action plan was evolved based on the outcome of the meeting:

Activity	Responsibility	Timeframe	Collaborating Agencies
Constitution of National Working Group	BAKORNAS PB	28th Feb 1999	BMG, BPPT LAPAN Agriculture Water Resources Forest and Environment Ministry of Food Affairs BULOG BPS
Constitution of Provincial / District/Subdistrict level Working Groups	BAKORNAS PB Public Works (Water Resources) Forest & Environment Public Health	7th March 1999	BMG, BPPT LAPAN Agriculture Water Resources Forest and Environment Ministry of Food Affairs BULOG BPS
Meeting of National Working Group to review progress of documentation at various levels	BAKORNAS PB	17th March 1999	BMG, BPPT LAPAN Agriculture Water Resources Forest and Environment Ministry of Food Affairs BULOG BPS
Identification of gaps meeting of national Working Group	BAKORNAS PB	15th June 1999	BMG, BPPT LAPAN Agriculture Water Resources Forest and Environment Ministry of Food Affairs BULOG BPS ADPC
Filling up of gaps	BAKORNAS PB	15th July 1999- 30th September 1999	BMG, BPPT LAPAN Agriculture Water Resources Forest and Environment Ministry of Food Affairs BULOG BPS ADPC
Analyze and draw lessons from information collected	BAKORNAS PB	1st - 30th Oct 1999	BMG, BPPT LAPAN Agriculture Water Resources Forest and Environment Ministry of Food Affairs BULOG BPS ADPC
Share lessons through national policy workshop	BAKORNAS PB	7th Oct 1999	BMG, BPPT LAPAN Agriculture Water Resources Forest and Environment Ministry of Food Affairs BULOG BPS ADPC
Share Lessons with Other Countries	ADPC	Nov1999-Dec1999	BMG, BPPT LAPAN Agriculture Water Resources Forest and Environment Ministry of Food Affairs BULOG BPS BAKORNAS PB

Extreme Climate Events Program
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center
PO Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120 Thailand
TEL: (66) 2524 5354 — FAX: (66) 2524 5350/60 — E-MAIL: ece@ait.ac.th