ECE Phase I
Indonesia - NATIONAL CONSULTATION WORKSHOP
11-12 October 2000
Jakarta

Background Paper

The Asian Disaster Preparedness Center in collaboration with the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID/ OFDA) has undertaken a project on understanding extreme climate events in Southeast Asia. The target countries are Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

As part of the project implementation process, the Start-up Workshop was held in 11-12 February 1999 in Bogor, Indonesia. As a follow-up of the recommendations of the Workshop, a quick assessment study was undertaken on the status of ENSO climate forecast application in Indonesia. The assessment was carried out by experts drawn from the Directorate for Natural Resources Inventory of the Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (TISDA-BPPT), the Directorate of Crop Protection of the Ministry of Agriculture, the State Ministry of Public Works, and the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BPS). The National Development Planning Agency (BAPPENAS), in collaboration with the Asian Development Bank also made a detailed analysis of the Causes, Extent, Impact and Costs of 1997/98 Fires and Drought in Indonesia. Based on these inputs, a report on the status of climate forecast application prospects in Indonesia is prepared.

The objectives of the Workshop are presented below:

1. To assess opportunities and constraints for the translation of global ENSO parameters into local weather variables in Indonesia.

Currently, the Meteorological and Geophysical Agency (BMG) provides the operational seasonal prediction scheme in Indonesia for 102 rainfall districts. These statistical analogue forecasts show skill in predicting wet season rainfall and wet season onset, and are reasonable in predicting dry season onset but are relatively poor at predicting dry season rainfall, especially during ENSO years. There is a need for further verification and refinement of this promising scheme.

ENSO events are associated with global-scale variations in sea surface temperature and pressure. Since there is a good degree of persistence and predictability in some of these parameters, this offers possibilities for statistical forecasting of seasonal rainfall at least three months in advance. Many different studies on Indonesian rainfall have confirmed this. Predictability is best for dry season rainfall and wet season onset, and in the south and east of Indonesia.

The Workshop is expected to deliberate on these issues to suggest the possibilities of refining BMGØs seasonal prediction scheme.

2. To present potential application of ENSO forecast information to manage future ENSO

The southern and eastern part of Indonesia is more sensitive to El Nino and La Nina compared to the northern and western part. The delineation of ENSO sensitive areas, keeping in view the behavior of rainfall and water resources availability could be used for focusing intervention measures to minimize risks associated with droughts and floods as well as maximizing the benefits of climate resources. The possibilities for re-designing existing agro-climate maps could be explored considering local variations of rainfall and status of irrigation. The skill to predict the onset dates of dry and wet seasons hold a promise for evolving cropping patterns suitable to El Niœo and La Niœa impacted seasons vis-a-vis normal seasons.

The rainfall deficit is proportionately associated with the emergence of hot spots. The use of El Nino forecast information could be explored for devising a workable early warning system to prevent forest fires in Indonesia.

The existing methodologies for potential impact assessments need to be reviewed taking into account the availability of long-range climate forecast. Based on the historical time series data, there are opportunities to construct ENSO impact scenarios and to pre-assess potential impacts well in time to prepare contingency plans for intervention.

3. To evolve an organizational framework for institutionalizing the climate forecast and application system in Indonesia.

Mechanisms exist in Indonesia for the transmission of short-range and medium-range forecast information by meteorological agencies to the forecast user organization. The long-range climate forecast information is also routinely transmitted by meteorological organization to user organization. As long-range forecasts are of probabilistic nature based on global ENSO indices, the user organizations are unable to utilize the forecast information for the benefit of end-users at the local level.

Lack of intermediate interpretation of Global ENSO Forecast into locally usable information for the benefit of end-users proved to be a formidable barrier in incorporating probabilistic forecast information into decision-making process. There is a need to address this critical gap by identifying suitable institutional mechanism which would process the ENSO forecast product and translate it into usable information to enable the user organization to deliver it to end users.

The institutional interpretation of long-range ENSO forecast information could be undertaken by applied research institutions, namely BPPT, National Space Agency (LAPAN), Agro-climate Research Centre (Bogor), Water Resources Management Center (Bandung), and universities, societal communication research agencies and extension support agencies. These institutions could act as intermediary links between meteorological service providers and user organizations for processing, refining and translating long-range forecast products into locally usable information to enable sector organizations to apply it for decision making.

These institutions could also be associated with the preparation of physical templates for consequence analysis keeping in view the different ENSO scenarios and potential impacts on micro-climatic homogenous zones. The capacity building of intermediate research institutions through technical assistance could go a long way for efficient functioning of these institutions in Indonesia.

The institutional framework involving BMG, intermediary research institutions, and end user organizations like the Ministries of Agriculture, Water Resources, Food Affairs, and Environment and Forestry, the National Development Planning Agency, BULOG, BPS, and non-government organizations like Agromet Association Indonesia could be evolved. The BPPT could play a coordinating role to enable this institutional network to meet immediately after the issuance of the wet season and dry season forecasts for using the climate forecast and evaluating the actual performance on a continuous basis.

4. To chart future directions

• Identify knowledge gaps
  - physical climate prediction
  - user adaptations
  - user needs
• Identifying need for institutional strengthening
  - intermediary research institution to translate climate forecast information to match user needs
  - information delivery institutions to transmit forecast information to users
  - continuous dialogue mechanisms between forecast producers and users.
• Identifying pilot demonstration project to address normal climate variability and ENSO-based climate variability in a high climate variability sensitive province.