|
|
|
|
ECE Phase I Background Paper | Agenda | Workshop Highlights National Consultation Workshop Highlights Asian Disaster Preparedness Center in collaboration with the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID/ OFDA) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has undertaken a project on understanding extreme climate events in Indonesia. As part of the project implementation process, the Start-up Workshop was held in 11-12 February 1999 in Bogor, Indonesia. As a follow-up of the recommendations of the Workshop, a quick assessment study was undertaken on the status of ENSO climate forecast application in Indonesia. The assessment was carried out by experts drawn from the Directorate for Natural Resources Inventory of the Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (TISDA-BPPT), the Directorate of Crop Protection of the Ministry of Agriculture, the State Ministry of Public Works, and the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BPS). A National Consultation Workshop, organized by ADPC in collaboration with BPPT, was held in Jakarta from 11-12 October 2000 to consider the preliminary research findings of the quick assessment study and to take follow-up actions. The objectives of the Workshop were:
The workshop was attended by 93 delegates from research institutions such as BPPT, LAPAN, PUSLITANAK, BAKOSURTANAL, BATAN and BMG, and national climate information user departments such as the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Public Works, Ministry of Environment, including representatives of the Indonesian Agro-meteorology Association. The technical sessions devoted to discuss emerging issues concerning climate forecast information generation and application as follows:
OUTCOMES OF THE WORKSHOP Upgradation of BMG seasonal prediction scheme The current seasonal forecast scheme is not in a position to predict with a reasonable accuracy the dry season rainfall especially during ENSO years. As there is a high degree of correlation between ENSO indices and the onset of west monsoon in Indonesia, it is possible to incorporate this feature into the climate prediction scheme. There is a possibility of refining the current seasonal prediction scheme and incorporate ENSO parameters to upgrade the seasonal forecast scheme in order to provide a long lead time for decision makers. Potential application of ENSO forecast information The southern and eastern parts of Indonesia are more sensitive to El Nino and La Nina compared to the northern and eastern parts. The delineation of ENSO sensitive areas, keeping in view the behavior of rainfall and water resources availability, could be used for focusing intervention measures to minimize risks associated with droughts and floods as well as maximizing the benefits of climate resources. The possibilities for re-designing existing agro-climate maps could be explored considering local variations of rainfall and status of irrigation. The skill to predict the onset dates of dry and wet seasons holds a promise for evolving cropping patterns suitable to El Nino and La Nina impacted seasons vis-›-vis normal seasons. The rainfall deficit is proportionately associated with the emergence of hot spots. The use of El Nino forecast information could be explored for devising a workable early warning system to prevent forest fires in Indonesia. Based on the historical time-series data, it is proposed to construct ENSO impact scenarios and this methodology would be used to pre-assess potential impacts in the event of occurrence of ENSO in the future. Institutional framework for institutionalizing climate forecast and application system in Indonesia The Ministry of Research and Technology proposed a scheme to coordinate upstream research functions and downstream application process. A programme committee consisting of representatives of BPPT, BMG, LAPAN, and IPB would explore the possibility of evolving a research and application framework and presenting it to the Ministry of Research and Technology for consideration and adoption. Identification of pilot demonstration project to address normal climate variability and ENSO-based climate variability in a high climate variability sensitive province. Action Plan The programme committee adopted the following action plan:
|
