|
|
|
|
ECE
Phase II Program Overview | Goals | Objectives | Program Components
Program Period: 3 years The peer-review meeting of the ECE Program held in October 2000 recognized the major contributions made by the program and the benefits gained by the participating agencies. The Program has enhanced awareness in the target countries on climate variability and its impacts on different geographical locations and sectors, and has promoted inter-sectoral dialogue among various departments and agencies responsible directly or indirectly for managing the impacts of extreme climate events. It has built an information base on past ENSO events and their impacts, generated a general map of vulnerability to climate extremes, and has identified tangible opportunities for the use of climate information for disaster reduction in the target countries. There was a strong commitment among all meeting participants to continue the work begun under the Program. The meeting recommended the following areas
for follow-up:
The second phase of the ECE program is envisaged to work in some of the key action areas identified above. The first phase has identified opportunities for the application of climate information for disaster reduction in vulnerable sectors and geographical locations. The next phase will work towards demonstrating the application of climate information in some of these locations and sectors, and share the learning from this process at the national level to bring about policy changes for effective integration of climate information in disaster reduction. Over the last three years, ADPC has gained recognition as a regional resource center to support climate information applications work. The Center now represents the Asian region in the Climate and Disasters Working Group constituted by the Inter-agency Task Force of the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR). It is hoped that the next phase will further strengthen the regional capability at ADPC to play an effective role in partnership with national agencies to support and promote climate information applications work in the Asian region. Phase II of the ECE Program has the following goal and objectives: To promote the development of sustainable institutional mechanisms for the application of climate information to reduce the disastrous effects of extreme climate events in selected Asian countries. Objective 1:To promote the local level application of climate information for disaster reduction in some of the most vulnerable locations and sectors in Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. Objective 2: To advocate for setting up of appropriate institutional mechanisms at the national level for the application of climate information for decision making. Objective 3: To strengthen a regional capability to promote and support climate forecast applications work in the Asian region. Component 1:Demonstration Projects on the Application of Climate Forecasts for Disaster Reduction The first phase of the ECE Program has generated a general map of vulnerability to extreme climate events in Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. At a large geographic scale, the program has also identified opportunities for the application of long-range climate forecasts for disaster reduction in these countries. However, each country demonstrates significant variation across different locations, seasons and sectors. Additional effort is required to make operational the application opportunities identified in these areas. In order to establish an end to end climate information system for disaster reduction, participation of a range of institutions Í climate information producers, intermediary organizations (such as agro-meteorological agencies, forestry research institutions) and user organizations Í at all levels would be required. Mechanisms exist in all the target countries for the transmission of short-range and medium-range forecast information by meteorological agencies to the forecast user organizations. Long-range climate forecasts are also routinely transmitted by meteorological agencies to user organizations. However, user organizations are unable to utilize them effectively for decision making. Lack of intermediate interpretation of long-range forecasts into locally usable information has proved to be a formidable barrier in incorporating probabilistic forecast information into the decision-making process. Phase II of the ECE Program will address this critical gap. Location- and sector-specific pilot projects will be undertaken in each of the target countries to demonstrate how long-range climate forecasts could be applied for disaster reduction. This will involve three phases: Start-up Phase. A project steering committee composed of representatives from national and local institutions will scope the pilot activity and design specific activities, with assistance from ADPC, IRI and other collaborating institutions. Local institutions responsible for managing the disastrous impacts of extreme climate events will be identified. Applications Research Phase. The existing knowledge base on local climate variability and its impacts will be assessed, and local climate information applications research needs will be identified by researchers from local and national institutions, with assistance from ADPC and IRI. Locally applicable methodologies for translation of long-range climate forecasts into local weather variables will be developed, for translation into impact pre-assessment and response strategies. Implementation Phase. Based on the outputs of the applications research phase and a rapid appraisal of existing capacities and needs of local institutions, training workshops will be designed for relevant personnel of local institutions on the methodologies, communication tools and procedures for the application of long-range climate forecasts for disaster reduction. These methodologies will then be applied on the ground in a pilot location within the demonstration project by local institutions. Application of these methodologies for one seasonal forecast will be evaluated. Lessons learned from this evaluation will help fine tune the methodologies. The application of these methodologies in each pilot location will be documented and shared at the national level to help identify capacity building requirements, appropriate institutional arrangements and national applications research agenda in the target countries for the most optimal application of climate forecasts for disaster reduction. Component 2: National level institutional mechanisms for climate forecast applications The experience gained from the implementation of demonstration projects will be used to identify and advocate for appropriate institutional mechanisms at the national level for the application of climate forecasts for disaster reduction. Activities will include: National Policy Workshops to promote a greater understanding of the applicability of climate science for disaster reduction and garner support for the setting up of appropriate sustainable institutional mechanisms for dealing with future extreme climate events. Resource Books on El Nino Preparedness fully owned by key national level agencies will be prepared. These will be an authoritative source on the El Nino phenomenon and its impacts, and the strategies for risk reduction. A Climate Forecasting Applications Research Agenda will be developed to initiate dialogue and collaboration among researchers and practitioners and work towards the development of locally applicable applications for each country. A Climate Forecasting Applications Training Program which suits the needs of the Asia-Pacific region will be offered. Regional Lessons Learned Meetings among managers from the climate information producer and user organizations and high-level policy makers will be held to provide a platform for exchange of new methodologies, experiences and lessons learned, and play an important advocacy role in moving towards a more conducive policy and institutional environment for better integration of climate information in decision making. Media Strategy. The program will work with national collaborating organizations to develop a media strategy for each country for disseminating information both before the occurrence of an extreme climate event as well as during the event. National media workshops will be organized for each country where media persons will be oriented on the different aspects of climate variability and their impacts. These workshops will identify steps towards strengthening partnership between media agencies and national agencies dealing with the impacts of extreme climate events so as to provide timely, accurate information to the public on issues related to climate variability both before and during the occurrence of an extreme climate event. Component 3:Strengthening a regional capability to promote and support climate forecast applications work in the Asian region A strong regional capability is required to promote and support the application of climate forecasts for disaster reduction in the countries of the region. Over the years, ADPC has become a recognized resource center to provide such a support function. However, in order to play a more meaningful role, its capacities need to be significantly enhanced. A Program Technical Advisory Committee comprising of representatives from a range of national, regional and international organizations working on different aspects of climate variability and its societal and environmental impacts will be constituted. Its main function is to play a Ëhand-holdingÓ role for the project implementers, i.e. ADPC and its national collaborating partners. The advisory group will periodically review the work done under this program and help ensure that the program meets the highest technical standards. The advisory group will have the following sub-groups: Climate forecast downscaling sub-group composed of representatives from NMSs, IRI, ASMC and WMO will provide guidance on utilizing global/ regional SST/ ENSO indicator-based forecasts for generating country-specific seasonal forecasts and translating these into local climate outlooks (expected rainfall and temperature outlooks in various climate zones). Impact outlook sub-group composed of representatives from intermediary research institutions and sectoral experts will provide guidance for utilizing local seasonal climate outlooks to map out potential disaster impacts on different sectors and for using this information for risk management. Communications sub-group composed of media and communication experts who have experience in information, education and communication related aspects of disaster management or other developmental fields will provide guidance on packaging of information for dissemination to a range of end users. This group will also suggest methodologies for getting feedback on use, non-use and misuse of climate forecasts at different levels. Other sub-groups will be formed from amongst the members of the Technical Advisory Group on as-needed basis. A Collaborative Linkage with the International Research Institute on Climate Prediction (IRI) will provide the necessary technical support to ADPC, strengthen its technical capacity as well as build capacity in the target countries for climate forecasting applications work. Coordination with other Regional and International Initiatives and explore opportunities within the climate science community as well as existing or potential climate information-user community for collaboration. A Regional ENSO Impacts Outlook Newsletter will be published quarterly to provide a general outlook of impacts of climate variability across the region, and encourage and support the intermediary and user organizations at the national level to undertake more detailed analysis (translation) for decision-making.
|
