Program Period: 30 September 1998 to 30 April 2001
Funding: USAID/ OFDA
Geographical Focus: Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam

PROGRAM OVERVIEW

In the wake of the 1997-1998 El Nino event, the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) in collaboration with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and with funding from the U.S. Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) organized the Asian Regional Meeting on El Niúo Related Crises in Bangkok from 2 to 6 February 1998. The meeting, sponsored by OFDA, brought together over 120 participants including national policy and decision makers, regional and international climate scientists and organizations, disaster managers from countries of the region, representatives from the international humanitarian assistance community, including bilateral and multilateral donors and NGOs, and regional media representatives.

The meeting recognized that improved scientific capacity to predict extreme climate events such as El Nino and La Nina with a lead-time of 9 to 12 months offers opportunities to take necessary action for reducing the negative impacts and increasing the potential benefits of these events. However, the application of forecast products can not be realized without a thorough understanding of the human, social and economic systems within which these forecasts will be applied. The gap between climate forecasting systems and their application needs to be bridged with a capacity to pre-assess the impacts of forecasted events on various sectors and to accordingly initiate actions to mitigate those impacts. The meeting identified a number of key action areas towards building such capacity in the region.

In order to bridge the gap between recent advancements in climate forecasting capabilities and their applications, ADPC, in collaboration with NOAA and with funding support from OFDA initiated the program on Extreme Climate Events (ECE). The goals and objectives of the program are:

GOALS

Goal 1: To significantly improve the understanding of the impacts of extreme climate events such as El Nino and La Nina on society and the environment in the target countries of Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

Goal 2: To significantly reduce the disaster impacts of extreme climate events on the target countries through effective application of climate information in development planning.

OBJECTIVES

Objective 1:To document the time series forecasts, impacts, institutional responses and policy frameworks related to extreme climate events (such as El Nino, La Nina, Indian Ocean SST patterns) over the past 30 to 40 years in Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam in order to improve the understanding of the impacts of such events particularly as related to disasters.

Objective 2: To draw upon the climate forecasting research community -- regional meteorological agencies, ASMC, NOAA, WMO, IRI etc. -- to identify event indicators and develop a predictive capability.

Objective 3: To provide an interface between the scientific and research community generating information on extreme climate events and the users of this information, such as national governments, NGOs, national and regional press bureaus, etc.

PROGRAM COMPONENTS (find more details here)

Component 1: Documentation and Analysis of the Impacts of and Responses to Past Extreme Climate Events

The project has undertaken a documentation of time series forecasts, impacts, institutional responses and policy frameworks related to extreme climate events over the past 30 to 40 years (depending on the availability of data in various sectors) in the target countries. The documentation process was conducted in collaboration with partner organizations in Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. The study focused on the direct impacts of disasters resulting from extreme climate events in the agriculture, water resources, environment, public health and disaster management sectors. Analysis of the data collected helped identify the locations and sectors vulnerable to extreme climate events, which led to the identification of specific opportunities for the application of climate forecasts for disaster reduction. Findings were disseminated and reviewed at National Consultation Workshops of national meteorological departments and decision-makers from various sectors in the target countries.

The process of documentation and analysis is owned by a network of institutional contacts in the target countries, and it is anticipated that in future extreme climate events this network can be activated to disseminate useful, accurate information for decision-making at various levels across different sectors. This will help in anticipating and mitigating the impact of disasters resulting from extreme climate events.

The methodologies adopted for the documentation and analysis of the impacts of and responses to extreme climate events were peer-reviewed internationally to ensure the technical quality of the work. Participants to the peer-review meeting included the program staff and technical advisors from ADPC, representatives of the study teams in the target countries of Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center (ASMC), Southeast Asia Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training Regional Center (SEA START RC), International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the East-West Center, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), U.S. Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and the World Bank.

Component 2: User Workshops

Regional user workshops were planned in tandem with regional climate outlooks fora to bring together producers and users of climate information and bring usersÿ perspective to the on-going initiatives on generating climate forecast outlooks. However, during the project duration, no regional climate outlook forum has been organized. National Consultation Workshops conducted at the completion of the documentation process in each of the target countries served the purpose of bringing together the producers and users of climate information. The Climate Information Producers and Users Workshop in Vietnam, which coincided with the issuance of the seasonal forecast, was a step towards the institutionalization of a dialogue mechanism between producers and users of climate information at the provincial level.

Component 3: Media Coordination

This component is focused on public awareness generation campaign to inform the general public of the impacts of extreme climate events and the strategies required to avert the negative impacts of such events. During the course of program implementation, ADPC has identified media contacts in each of the three countries. Based on the information resources accumulated and the media information needs identified, a series of articles and programs will be produced in each of the three countries.