The objectives of the program will be achieved through the following program components:

Component I: Documentation and Analysis of Impacts of and Responses to Past Extreme Climate Events

The project will undertake a documentation of time series forecasts, impacts, institutional responses and policy frameworks related to extreme climate events over the past 30 to 40 years (depending on the availability of data in various sectors) in the target countries. Documentation of impacts of and responses to past extreme climate events will be conducted in collaboration with partner organization(s) in each of the target countries. The analysis of this documentation will help identify the vulnerable locations and sectors in each country. This will lead to the identification of specific opportunities for the application of climate forecasts for disaster reduction. These findings will be disseminated and reviewed at a National Consultation Workshop of national meteorology departments and decision-makers from various sectors. This process, which has been completed in Vietnam, is currently underway in Indonesia and the Philippines, and will be extended to Bangladesh and Thailand, countries which also appear to be vulnerable to extreme climate events.

The process of documentation and analysis is owned by a network of institutional contacts in each target country, and it is anticipated that in future extreme climate events this network can be activated to disseminate useful, accurate information for decision-making at various levels across different sectors. This will help in anticipating and mitigating the impact of disasters resulting from extreme climate events.

The methodologies adopted for the documentation and analysis of impacts of and responses to extreme climate events will be peer-reviewed internationally to ensure the technical quality of the work. The participants in this review process will include program staff and technical advisors from ADPC, program participants from the target countries, representatives from the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center (ASMC), climate forecasting applications experts from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction, experts from NOAA and WMO. The participants of this workshop will form a core working group for a Regional Sharing Workshop that will be held after the completion of national consultation workshops in Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. The Regional Sharing Workshop will have a broader participation and will bring together experiences and lessons learned from not only the program target countries but also other countries of the region and the world.

Activities

1. Preliminary identification of partner institutions and preparation of a preliminary documentation plan.

This activity has been completed in Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. Initial contacts have been made in both Bangladesh and Thailand. Partner institutions will be identified on the basis of contacts already made and on secondary information. After preliminary communication with the partner institutions and some initial secondary-source research, a preliminary documentation plan which will include an inventory of the kind of information to be collected and possible sources of information in Bangladesh and Thailand will be prepared.

2. Start-up workshop in each of the target countries to start the documentation process.

This activity has already been completed in Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. In Bangladesh and Thailand, the partner institutions identified will undertake the documentation process under the guidance of the team of the ECE Program Manager and the Technical Advisor. In collaboration with the partner institutions, this team will facilitate a two-day start-up workshop in both countries to start the documentation of impacts of and responses to past extreme climate events. Start-up workshops in Bangladesh and Thailand will be held in January 2001 and December 2000 respectively.

3. Documentation process.

This process has already been completed in Vietnam, and is well underway in Indonesia and the Philippines. Following the start-up workshops in Bangladesh and Thailand, the documentation process will begin in these countries. ADPC will be the technical resource center for the partner institutions and will provide technical and strategic guidance via electronic communication and periodic technical advice cum monitoring visit. This process will begin in Bangladesh and Thailand in February 2001 and January 2001 respectively and is anticipated to be completed by June 2001. The ongoing work in Indonesia and the Philippines is expected to be over by July 2000 and September 2000 respectively.

4. Technical advice cum monitoring visit.

An average of two technical advice cum monitoring visits are planned to each of the target countries during the course of the documentation process. These visits will be made by the ECE Program Manager and the Technical Advisor to the partner institutions to provide technical advice and monitor the progress of the program. For Vietnam, this process has been completed. Two visits have been made to Indonesia. Visits are being scheduled for the Philippines as per the requirement of partner institutions in the country. In Bangladesh and Thailand these visits will be scheduled once the documentation process begins.

5. Analysis of the documentation of past extreme climate events.

The end of the technical advice cum monitoring visits and documentation process will also mark the beginning of an analysis phase to derive "lessons learned" from each country's experiences. The analysis of information gathered to draw conclusions on the nature of impact of extreme climate events on respective countries (and corresponding strategies to mitigate them) will be carried out by a team of experts from the partner institutions in each of the target countries, with assistance from the ECE Technical Advisor and Program Manager. If required, additional international expertise will be brought in. This process has been completed in Vietnam, is in advanced stages in Indonesia and will be initiated in the Philippines in August 2000. It is anticipated that this process will start in Bangladesh and Thailand in May 2000

6. National Consultation Workshops.

Upon completion of the documentation and analysis of impacts of and responses to past extreme climate events, a national consultation workshop will be organized in each country to share findings and seek feedback on recommendations made by the ECE program. The participants will include representatives of the key institutions from the country that would use climate information in decision-making. Based on the institutional contacts developed during the course of the study, the workshops will identify an information network that can be activated during the next extreme climate event to disseminate useful, accurate and timely climate forecast application information. An extremely successful national consultation workshop has already been conducted in Vietnam. Similar workshops are planned in Indonesia and the Philippines in July and September 2000 respectively. The Bangladesh and Thailand Workshops are likely to be conducted in June 2001.

7. Program Peer-Review Meeting

A program peer-review will be organized to ensure the technical quality of the documentation and analysis work and resolve some of the methodological issues. The opportunities for adopting the methodologies used under the ECE program in other contexts will be explored. The participants in this review process will include program staff and technical advisors from ADPC, two program participants from each of the target countries, representatives from the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center (ASMC), climate forecasting applications experts from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction, Office of Global Programs of NOAA and WMO. The participants of this workshop (12 to 15) will later form the core working group for the Regional Sharing Workshop to be held at the completion of the national consultation workshop in Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. This activity is planned for the fourth week of July or the first week of August 2000.

8. Regional Sharing Workshop

Regional Sharing Workshop will bring together a range of participants from the target countries of the ECE program as well as from other countries of the region. It will be an opportunity to share the findings of Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam programs. Participants from partner institutions in Bangladesh and Thailand will have an opportunity to look at the work done in these three target countries and chart directions for their own country programs. A range of national, regional and international organizations will be invited to compare notes on climate forecasting applications and the work being done in other regions. This activity is planned for the fourth week of October or the first week of November 2000.

Outputs

1. Documentation and analysis of the impact of past extreme climate events identifying the most vulnerable locations and sectors in each of the target countries. The final report will be produced both in print and electronic formats.

2. Documentation of methodologies adopted for undertaking the documentation and analysis of the impact of past extreme climate events.

3. A network of institutional contacts in each target country that can be activated in the next extreme climate event to disseminate information on appropriate response and mitigation strategies.

Component II: Pilot Testing of Opportunities Identified for the Application of Climate Forecasts for Decision-making

The documentation and analysis of past extreme climate events and their impacts would lead to the identification of geographic locations and sectors most vulnerable to extreme climate events. Specific recommendations will be made to mitigate the impacts of extreme climate events. This component of the program will undertake pilot testing of these recommendations. In each country, one or two of the most vulnerable locations will be selected. Contacts will be established with the meteorological departments and potential user departments at the provincial level. A workshop, coinciding with the issuance of a seasonal climate forecast, will bring together these experts and will discuss the possibilities of operationalizing these forecasts in extreme climate events as well as in normal times. This will establish a dialogue between users and producers of climate information at the operational level and help fine-tune both the forecast products as well as sectoral decision making. This will lead to enhanced preparedness for future extreme climate events.

Activities

1. Climate information producer and user workshop at the provincial level.

In each of the target countries, based on the documentation and analysis of past events, one or two provinces that are most susceptible to climate variability will be identified. A workshop will be organized at the provincial level where participants from the meteorological departments and various climate information user departments will come together to discuss specific opportunities for the application of climate forecasts in decision-making. The program will endeavor to institutionalize such dialogue between producers and users of climate information. In Vietnam this workshop will be held in September. In other target countries, these workshops will be scheduled at the time of the national consultation workshops.

2. Pilot testing of climate forecasting applications at the provincial level.

Based on the outcome of activity 1, specific pilot testing of climate forecasting application will be carried out in an identified sector in an identified geographic location. This activity will commence after the completion of Activity 1.

Output

Documentation of specific actions for effective application of climate forecasts. This documentation will be made available in the local language and identify specific steps for applying climate forecasts for decision-making.

Component III: Communication Strategy (Media Coordination)

In each of the target countries the outcomes of the project will be disseminated to the public about the nature of extreme climate events, their impacts on the respective countries and possible strategies for mitigating those impacts. The communication strategy will focus on specific target groups in both government and non-government sectors. During the course of program implementation, ADPC has identified media contacts in each of the three countries. As the results of the documentation and analysis start coming out in each of the target countries, a series of articles and programs will be produced in each of the countries.

Activities

1. Preparation of a communication strategy.

This will include the identification of key media agencies at the national level and specific target groups for information dissemination in each of the target countries. This activity will be done after the completion of the national consultation workshop in each target country.

2. Information dissemination.

Based on the outputs of Component I, information will be disseminated through a series of articles in the national and regional media after the completion of the national consultation workshop in each target country.

3. Setting up of a web-based information resource center.

In parallel with the other activities of this component, ADPC will set up a web-based information resource center on extreme climate events. This activity is currently underway.

Output

1. Established Media contacts for information dissemination related to extreme climate events.

2. A series of articles in the national and regional media on the impacts of disasters resulting from extreme climate events and the appropriate strategies to deal with them.