A participant quizzed PAGASA
about the terminologies used in forecast bulletins.
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First
Local Climate Forum Convened in Iloilo, Philippines
PAGASA forecasts below normal rainfall in Iloilo
until March 2007 due to El Niño
The Iloilo Provincial Agriculture
Office (PAO) convened the first Climate Forum
in Iloilo province, Philippines on 15 November
2006. "The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical
Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
has been holding climate forums in Manila since
2003 but this is the first time that a similar
forum is being held at the sub-national level,"
said Dr. Flaviana Hilario, Chief of the Climatology
and Agrometeorology Branch at PAGASA.
The Climate Forum
is an important step towards institutionalizing
a dialogue between PAGASA and the forecast users,
such as the PAO and other agencies that are
responsible for managing climate-sensitive sectors.
The Forum helps ensure that the forecast products
provided by PAGASA, including their inherent
uncertainties, are understood by and communicated
to users in a timely manner. The Forum also
provides a venue for forecast users to give
feedback on the relevance of PAGASA's forecast
products in managing climate-associated risks
in various sectors.
If current El Niño condition
persists, PAGASA told the participants that
the province of Iloilo and most of Panay Island
will receive below normal rainfall from November
2006 through March 2007. The El Niño
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, a periodic
warming of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in
the eastern and central equatorial Pacific,
has historically caused rainfall deficit in
most parts of the Philippines, among other impacts.
As seasonal rainfall forecasts are based on
latest SSTs, PAGASA will issue monthly updates
to its six-month seasonal forecast. These updates
may be accessed from PAGASA's website:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph. PAGASA was
represented by Dr. Flaviana Hilario and meteorologists
Anthony Lucero and Rosalinda de Guzman.
The Climate Forum was participated by the members
of the multi-sectoral Technical Working Group
(TWG) for Climate Forecast Applications that
was constituted by Iloilo Governor Neil Tupaz
on 9th November 2006. The TWG consists of key
agencies at the regional, provincial, and municipal
levels that are responsible for managing climate-sensitive
sectors, such as agriculture, water resources,
disaster management, environment, and health.
After listening to PAGASA's presentations, the
participants discussed how they would use the
climate information from PAGASA in order to
prepare for the potential impacts of El Niño.
Dr. Romeo Recide, Director of the Bureau of
Agricultural Statistics, and Dumangas Mayor
Rolando Distura served as resource persons during
the discussion. Mr. Zafiro Palabrica, Provincial
Agriculturists and PAO staff Mr. Lorenzo Locara
facilitated the discussion.
The Asian Disaster Preparedness
Center is supporting the Climate Forum in Iloilo
under the "Climate Forecast Applications
(CFA) for Disaster Mitigation in Indonesia and
the Philippines" program. The program helps
develop sustainable end-to-end institutional
systems in Indonesia and the Philippines that
demonstrate improvements in the performance
of climate sensitive sectors at the community
level with the capacity to achieve similar success
nationally in other locations. Dumangas, a municipality
in Iloilo, Philippines is one of the demonstration
sites in the program. CFA is being funded by
the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance of
the United States Agency for International Development
(OFDA-USAID).
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