The proposed forecasting system provides forecasts of regional precipitation and Ganges and Brahmaputra river discharge into Bangladesh on three overlapping time scales:

• 1-6 months: “Broad brush” estimates of regional rainfall and Brahmaputra (B) and Ganges (G) river discharge into Bangladesh (collectively B+G and individually B and G). Forecasts are issued every month for 6-month periods. These forecasts are issued to provide information for strategic planning in agriculture and allied sectors and for disaster preparedness.

• 20-30 days: Forecasts of regional rainfall and river discharge (B and G) on 20-30 days time scale provides forecasts for 5-day average periods (pentads) centered at 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 days. Forecasts are issued every 5 days and are used to allow both strategic and tactical decisions in the agricultural, water resources and disaster management sectors. There are currently two versions of the 20-30 day forecasts schemes: Mode I, the existing version, which provides only a single forecast at a particular time in the future (say 20, 25 days) and Mode II (under development which provides a probabilistic forecast like the 1-10 day scheme described below.

• 1-10 day forecasts: Issued daily for 1-10 days providing probability forecasts of regional precipitation and river discharge. These forecasts have been rendered to provide probability of flood level exceedance at the entry point of the G and B into Bangladesh. The forecasts have been incorporated into the forecast river routing model of the Government of Bangladesh’s Flood Forecast and Warning Centre (FFWC) on an experimental operational basis.

Project Partners

The project involves the participation of institutions/networks namely the Climate Forecast Application Network (CFAN) in Georgia, USA, Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC), Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), Department of Agriculture Extension (DAE) Disaster Management Bureau (DMB), Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS), Institute of Water Modeling (IWM) and CARE-Bangladesh.