Kathmandu Valley Earthquake Risk Management Project (KVERMP) PROJECT COMPONENTS Background Earthquake Scenario and Action Plan School Earthquake Safety Education, Training, and Institution Building Earthquake Education Programs Raise Public Awareness, Earthquake Safety Day Fund Raising/Leveraging Earthquake Scenario and Action Plan Assess Earthquake Risk Our first step will be to summarize the available information about the Kathmandu Valicy's earthquake risking a form that is understandable to public officials and the public. The goal is not to develop a new, improved assessment of this risk, but rather to present what has previously been published about that risk in a form in which people who are subject to the risk and those who are responsible for managing that risk can understand its dimensions and organize their response. We will develop an earthquake risk map by superimposing the intensity of ground shaking experienced in the 1934 earthquake, on the surface geologic conditions and the infrastructure of modem Kathmandu Valley, including roads; bridges; gas, water, sewer and electrical lines; critical government buildings; the airport; schools; and hospitals. We will also write a summary of the earthquake risk of the KV. What is known about future earthquakes (size, location, and repeat times) and the growth of the urban environment in KV will be described. For the purposes of the earthquake scenario (described below), we will concentrate on estimating the effect of a repeat of the 1934 event. One of our reasons for choosing an actual earthquake is that experience has shown that lay people are better able to envision what the effects of a repeat of an actual event will be on their city than the effects of a hypothetical event. Another reason is that, while seismology can be used to estimate the effects of a hypothetical event, taking into account magnitude, rupture dynamics, path attenuation and near-surface geology, these estimates are subject to debate. By using the observed ground motions of a past event, we can avoid a debate over seismological details and concentrate on improving earthquake preparedness. Finally, this approach is taken because it is felt that the effects of the soft surface geology in the KV will mean that the relative pattern of intensity will be approximately the same for all deep earthquakes. In short, we think that envisioning what would happen to modern-day KV if the 1934 event were to be repeated is the best means to envision what will happen during the next significantly destructive earthquake. In all probability, the next earthquake to destroy KV will not be an exact repetition of the 1934 event: it will have a different hypocenter, magnitude and rupture mechanism. However, it is quite likely, in our judgment, that the next large earthquake to affect KV will have the same relative shaking pattern within the Valley. Interview Operators of Critical Facilities We will use the earthquake risk map in our interviews with the operators of critical facilities in the KV. An initial list of the operators to be interviewed. The interviewers will, usually, be two people from NSET: an engineer and a journalist. For the first three interviews, there will also be a person from GHI. The interviewers will explain to the person interviewed the overall earthquake risk of KV. Part of this presentation will be an explanation of the earthquake risk map, which will show the expected level of shaking on the operator's facility. The interviewers will ask the critical facility operator what the effect of the expected shaking will be on his facility. Examples can be presented by the interviewers of what that level of shaking has done to similar facilities. The interviewers will ask the operator to think what kind of measures he could take to manage the risk he is facing. Earthquake Scenario After all the interviews are complete, a workshop will be held for government and business KV officials who are responsible for the operation of important facilities or are responsible for responding in emergencies. In addition, a few foreigners will be invited to attend who have similar responsibilities in other communities and who have actual experience during damaging earthquakes. The workshop will have two products. The first product of the workshop is an earthquake scenario, namely a description of the possible consequences of a repeat of the 1934 earthquake. This scenario will be based on the interviews of the operators of the critical facilities, and it will be modified during the workshop. The interviewers will present at the workshop what a summary of the picture that emerged from the interviews. The participants will discuss this picture, probably by breaking into small working groups and then reassembling in a plenary session. Modifications of the scenario will be made, based on the comments. In this way, a scenario representing the consensus view of all the participants will be developed. A document will be written based on the conclusions of the workshop describing in non- technical laymen terms the likely consequences of a large earthquake. This will be published in Nepali and English, for use by the locals and international communities. It will help raise awareness and motivate risk reduction actions. Action Plan The second product of the workshop will an action plan of the highest priority steps that should be taken to reduce the valley's earthquake risk. This will be developed during the second day of the workshop, again using the technique of splitting the participants into small working groups. Use will be made of action plans developed for other communities (e.g. California, Salt Lake City, Utah, and Quito, Ecuador), as well as plans that have been developed in the past for Kathmandu City. NSET will review the draft Action Plan coming from the workshop and adopt those elements it feels represent a balanced, responsible, achievable plan. This is planned to occur in December 1997. As shown on the workplan, the first annual review of NSET will occur in December 1998. At that time, NSET will review what progress has been made, assess the reasons when progress has not met expectations, and write a report for public consumption. In this way, we expect that NSET will begin to establish itself as a "watchdog" of seismic safety programs in Nepal. Final Report Following the workshop, a final report will be prepared and published that has three parts: a summary of the earthquake risk of KV the earthquake scenario, namely a description of the consequences of a repeat of the 1934 earthquake on modern KV, and an action plan of the highest priority steps that should be taken to manage this risk. Status of the Component (as of February 2000) KVERMP Advisory Committee established Information of Earthquake Risk compiled Loss Estimation due to Scenario Earthquake conducted Earthquake Scenario prepared, a simplified version of the earthquake scenario published in Nepali and English versions, and widely distributed as an awareness raising tool An Action Plan for managing the earthquake risk of Kathmandu Valley prepared Action Plan being implemented in close cooperation with partnering institutions