Kathmandu Valley Earthquake Risk Management Project (KVERMP) PROJECT COMPONENTS Background Earthquake Scenario and Action Plan School Earthquake Safety Education, Training, and Institution Building Earthquake Education Programs Raise Public Awareness, Earthquake Safety Day Fund Raising/Leveraging Background Kathmandu Valley's Earthquake Risk Nepal has a long history of destructive earthquakes. In this century alone over 11,000 people have lost their lives in four major earthquakes. A 1934 earthquake produced an intensity of IX-X on the Modified Mercali Intensity (MMI) scale in Kathmandu Valley, and destroyed 20% and damaged 40% of the valley's building stock. In Kathmandu itself, one quarter of all homes were destroyed. Many of the temples in Bhaktapur were destroyed as well. This earthquake is not an isolated event. Three earthquakes produced intensities of IX-X in Kathmandu Valley in the 19th Century, in 1810, 1833 and 1866. The seismic record of the region suggests a return period of about 25 years, indicating that a devastating earthquake is inevitable in the long run and likely in the near future. A large earthquake near the Kathmandu Valley would cause significantly greater human loss, physical damage, and economic crisis than caused by the past earthquakes. With the Valley's burgeoning population of almost 1 1/2 million people, uncontrolled development, and a construction practice that has actually degraded over this century, the Valley becomes increasingly vulnerable to earthquakes with each passing year. Recent experience of the consequences of large earthquakes in developing countries has led to the rule of thumb that shaking of intensity IX on the MMI scale will result in 5% of the exposed population to die and 20% to have injuries requiring hospitalization; for Kathmandu Valley today, that means that a repeat of the 1934 earthquake would result in 75,000 deaths and 300,000 serious injuries. Even if all critical facilities were to remain operational, this would be an unprecedented disaster. Roots of this Earthquake Risk Despite this threat, there is no institution within Kathmandu Valley to assess earthquake hazards or promote an earthquake risk management program. A weak economy, rapid population growth, and lack of technical information about the earthquake risk significantly contributes to the seismic vulnerability and lack of earthquake preparedness in Kathmandu Valley. Poverty and the Economy Nepal is among the poorest and least developed countries in the world. it has a gross domestic product (GDP) of US$ 2.9 billion (60% of which is derived from agriculture), or a per capita GDP of US$ 145. Approximately, 14% of the GDP (US$ 400 million) derives from foreign development aid from international and national overseas development agencies. A weak economy and abundant poverty result in a lack of government funds to support earthquake hazard mitigation programs, inexpensive, poorly constructed dwellings that often fail during earthquakes, and a tendency to the general population to ignore the earthquake hazard in order to concentrate on fulfilling more immediate needs. Population Growth Nepal's rapid population growth exacerbates its earthquake vulnerability. With an annual population growth rate of 2.4%, the population of Nepal will double by the year 2019. T'he consequences on Kathmandu Valley are even more sever: rural exodus drives urban growth at an even faster rate, resulting in an urban growth rate of 6.5% and one of the highest urban densities in the world. Such growth hampers earthquake safety in three primary ways: It strains the economy, diminishing available funding for education, research, public policy and regulation programs which could reduce the seismic hazard. It necessitates rapid rather than sound construction, resulting in unplanned, unregulated buildings and development designed without building codes. High population densities increase the raw number of people at risk and overwhelm emergency services. Lack of Awareness of Earthquake Risk While the technical information about the earthquake hazard in Kathmandu Valley is incomplete and scattered among several governmental agencies, a more important contributor to the region's lack of earthquake preparedness is that the technical information that is available has not been synthesized, has not been applied to the infrastructure of modem day Kathmandu Valley, and has not been presented in a form that the public and government officials can digest it. Addressing the Earthquake Threat Earthquake risk is one of many problems facing Kathmandu Valley and Nepal, but, given the inevitability and disastrous consequences of a future strong earthquake, seismic safety must be incorporated into its development plan. There are three fundamental elements necessary to reduce the earthquake threat in Kathmandu Valley: An estimation, using all information currently available, of the probable consequences of a repeat of the 1934 earthquake on modern day Kathmandu Valley. This estimation should be expressed in laymen's terms, so as to be readily understood by the public, business leaders and government officials. This will provide a factual basis for a sound public policy concerning earthquake safety. A comprehensive set of earthquake risk management recommendations, based on the expected consequences of a large earthquake; developed by local and international specialists in government, city planning, urban infrastructure, and emergency services; and addressing the most significant aspects of the Valley's risk. A properly constituted and equipped organization in which government, business and academic leaders collaborate to foster earthquake risk management and incorporate earthquake disaster mitigation strategies into Kathmandu Valley urban development process. This organization would be vital also in facilitating, monitoring and assisting in the implementation of risk management programs. A demonstration project in which the earthquake risk of some critical, vulnerable element of society is reduced. Such a project should not only accomplish something tangible (to leave something more than reports and organizations), but also contribute to the training of local people. The approach used in this project addresses these needs. Objectives The Kathmandu Valley Earthquake Risk Management Project is designed to meet four objectives: Evaluate earthquake, risk and prescribe action plan for managing that risk; Reduce the public school's earthquake vulnerability; Raise awareness of the public, of Nepalese government officials, the international community resident in KV, and of influential organizations abroad of KV's earthquake risk; and Build local institutions that can sustain the work launched in this project.